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fresh analysis from http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/JBRN-7N9E43?OpenDocument A new balance of power in SomaliaSource: Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Date: 13 Jan 2009
The nature of the security vacuum they have left is open to dispute, and there are many observers who hope that Ethiopia's withdrawal will deprive the militant liberationists of much of their nationalist appeal. In this regard much will depend on how the security needs of Mogadishu, in particular, are met. There are signs that elements of the rump of the transitional federal government (TFG), clan militias and the accommodationist Djibouti wing of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS-D) are trying to assume control of certain law and order functions. The future role of the African Union mission (Amisom) remains opaque. The AU Peace and Security Committee has urged its reinforcement and for the United Nations (UN) to provide urgently needed financial and logistical support. Whether the UN Security Council will be able to shed its institutional lethargy quickly enough to do this remains to be seen, though the US and other interested parties are also urging rapid action to make the best use of what they see as a rare opportunity to influence matters positively. Of course, the militant liberationists have always tried to depict Amisom as an Ethiopian tool for assisting the TFG. In addition the UN has forfeited some of its claims to political neutrality by financing a TFG police force that was scarcely distinguishable from a warlord militia. The argument can therefore still be made that a low profile is what is required on the part of would-be peacekeepers, so that even if a measure of inter-militia violence ensues, this is seen to be a domestic issue rather than another surrogate operation with foreign agendas in mind. The resignation last month of Somalian President Abdullahi Yusuf and the subsequent decampment of his Darod militiamen to Puntland has also changed the balance of power in south-central Somalia. However, it also provides the new president of Puntland, Abdirahman Mohamed "Farole" with greater muscle to engage in his feud with Somaliland, should the dispute over Sool and Sanaag again move beyond negotiation. Farole's election by Puntland's parliament last week marked the end of the controversial rule of President Mohamed Musa Adde, who had long been at odds with the legislators of this autonomous region of Somalia and had occasionally clashed with the TFG, especially over the granting of potentially lucrative oil exploration contracts on land and at sea. President Musa Adde's administration had also failed to deal with the pirate menace, which is based largely in Puntland and apparently flourished with the connivance of certain of his colleagues. President Farole has promised to end the pirate scourge, which would certainly earn him the plaudits of an international community facing the expense of extensive naval operations. He has also urged other areas of Somalia to embrace the constitutional path attempted by Puntland since 1998: the formation of responsible local administrations ultimately subordinate to the transitional federal government. At present the TFG is headed by an interim president, Sheikh Adan "Madobe" Mohamed, but parliament is due to meet on 26 January to elect a new head of state. Madobe has insisted that arrangements for the formation of a new unity government, which would see the size of parliament doubled to 550 members, will have to wait, though this has been contested by an official statement following a ministerial meeting attended by representatives from Somalia, Uganda and Burundi (the troop contributing countries to Amisom), the UN, AU and ARS-D. According to the press release from this meeting, a unity government will be formed before the presidential vote in Djibouti on the 26th, which will be both a political and logistical challenge. It might be argued that strict adherence to the procedures dictating a presidential election within thirty days of the previous incumbent's resignation might by waived in the interests of a more promising and more soundly based administration, though it might be argued that a new president, especially one commanding popularity in Mogadishu, would give much needed fillip to the project of refurbishing the threadbare TFG. Since its inception in 2004 the TFG has been regarded by many, if not most, Somalis as a political solution imposed by outsiders. If a government is to be fashioned in Somalia that can somehow break the mould of the past, it will probably take more time and patient support than the international community is willing to concede, especially as any good that is to be done from outside will have to be extremely low in profile. This is often advice that is difficult to heed, especially when foreign politicians and diplomats are eager to be seen to be doing something. Richard Cornwell, Senior Research Fellow, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria) also it appears from this report that france & djibouti have all but formally recognized somaliland http://somalilandpress.com/926/somaliland-delegation-due-in-djibouti Somaliland delegation due in Djibouti for talks Sun, Jan 11, 2009Hargeisa (SomalilandPress, Jan 11th 2009); A high-level delegation officials from Somaliland is set to travel to the Republic of Djibouti early Monday to seal an agreement that the two nations have signed June last year (2008). The ministers consist of the Foreign Minister, Interior Minister, Finance Minister and deputy Information Minister.The delegation are expected to hold talks with their Djibouti counter-parts and will discuss a number of key agreements the two countries have already signed, these includes;-
at the same time it appears from this report that somaliland jurisdiction has been largely restored in the sanaag & sool regions that were previously occupied & are clearly still coveted by puntland http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Puntland_s_new_leader_frustrates_Somaliland.shtml
HARGEISA, Somalia Jan 11 (Garowe Online) - The newly elected leader of Somalia's Puntland regional government has demanded that Somaliland separatists withdraw their forces from the disputed regions, Radio Garowe reports. Puntland's new leader urged the Somaliland public not support separatist government's agenda to spoil the upcoming election in Somaliland.
He challenged the Somaliland leadership, saying: "Where are the community and traditional leaders of the regions [Sool and Sanaag]? They are all here in Garowe," he answered, referring to the capital of Puntland. "I request the Somaliland administration to stop the hostilities and to immediately withdraw from Sool [region] and to respect good neighborliness among the brotherly peoples who will always need each other," President Farole added.
Somaliland response Mr. Abdullahi Mohamed Du'ale, Somaliland's foreign affairs minister, heatedly responded to the new Puntland leader's comments. "We [Somaliland] see these comments as a new development," Mr. Du'ale told the BBC Somali Service during a Sunday interview, before flying from Hargeisa to Djibouti. He suggested that the Puntland leader's position is that "all the related clans work together. Governance cannot be built on clans. It looks like he [Farole] is sending us backwards." Somaliland's foreign minister expressed surprise at Puntland President Farole's clear position vis-à-vis the disputed regions, saying: "The men before him used to sugarcoat words." Responding to Dr. Farole's challenge, Mr. Du'ale said: "I was part of the Somaliland delegation that visited Las Anod [capital of Sool] to monitor the voter-registration process, which is going well. The traditional elders in Garowe have become politicians." He strongly defended Somaliland's unrecognized borders, saying that Somalia was originally divided into British Protectorate of Somaliland and the Italian colony of Somalia. Mr. Du'ale called on the Puntland administration to combat insecurity and piracy instead. Somaliland's separatist government claims colonial-era boundaries in its bid for international recognition, but the breakdown of the Somali nation-state in 1991 has led to each clan to establish self-rule its native land. The most well-known traditional elders from Sool region, native to the Dhulbahante clan, have been in Garowe for months where they played a key role in overseeing a smooth and successful election process that brought Dr. Farole to power on Jan. 8. President Farole's deputy, Gen. Abdisamad Ali Shire, is a Dhulbahante clansman from Sool region. The Dhulbahante clan, along with President Farole's Majerteen and the Warsangeli, form the Harti confederacy of the larger Darod clan-family, which forms the core constituency of Puntland. In Somaliland, the dominant Isaaq clan is perceived as the primary supporters of secession while the Harti clans are seen as pro-Somali unity. Thousands of civilians who fled Las Anod following Somaliland's takeover in Oct. 2007 now live in Garowe and other parts of Puntland. nevertheless the writ of hargeisa still appears a bit hedged around the frontier areas judging from recent voter registration incidents etc regions map http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/africa/somalia_pol02.jpg on which the abovementioned las anod is written laascaanood on the approaching presidential election in somaliland http://somaliland.org/blog/2009/01/who-is-expected-to-win-somaliland-presidential-elections/ Who is expected to Win Somaliland Presidential Elections
January 12th, 2009
THE PEOPLE OF SOMALILAND ARE GOING TO THE POLLS TO VOTE FOR A NEW PRESIDENT IN LESS THAN FOUR MONTHS. WHO IS EXPECTED TO WIN? The next election will be the second presidential election since the introduction of multiparty democracy and presidential elections into Somaliland. The last presidential election had taken place in 2003 and the incumbent president won. President Rayale won that election with less than 90 votes. President Rayale and Chairman Silanyo each garnered 42% of the vote while Engineer Faysal obtained 16% of the vote. In that election, not only the margin of victory was so thin but also accusations of vote rigging and some other voting irregularities were made by the opposition parties. As they did in 2003, the opposition parties – Kulmiye and UCID - have again nominated Chairman Silanyo and Engineer Faysal for the presidency and the governing party, UDUB, is expected to do the same and nominate the president for re-election. Hence, the next election will be a rematch of the last one. In contrast with most of the developing countries around the world, Somaliland held successful parliamentary elections three years ago, a satisfactory presidential election two years earlier and smooth municipal elections six years ago. But even so, this time the suspicions are high because of the voter registration scandals and the government’s continuing effort to delay the election. Therefore, there is a great danger that, unless the people believe that the election process is free, fair and transparent, the country's image and stability could get a dangerous blow. After the result of the close election of 2003 was announced, most of the people of Somaliland were not expecting that the opposition would give in easily. But to the surprise of most of the Somaliland people, Chairman Silanyo accepted defeat. And by doing so, he diffused the worst political crises in Somaliland and thus the first-ever presidential election entered the history books as a peaceful one. Kulmiye Party supporters claim, that unlike other Somali politicians who always put their political ambitions and interest above and over everything else, Chairman Silanyo is a true statesman and a patriot who would rather lose an election than plunge the country into instability. And there may be some truth into that considering the numerous concessions he made during recent political and constitutional crisis and after the virtually-tie election of 2003. Will Chairman Silanyo, therefore, get revenge on President Rayale and beat him in 2009? Kulmiye Party supporters believe that if the election is held in peace, their chances of defeating the president are huge and bright. They say their candidate is gaining ground in every region of the country while the president is losing support even in his home region. “The president knows that he can not win a fair election and that is why he is delaying the election and hanging on to the power”, a close friend of Engineer Sayli, the running mate of Chairman Silanyo, told me by phone recently. “When you take into consideration the close election of 2003, the low approval rating of the president and the huge public displeasure of his government, you get the sense that Kulmiye will sweep to victory in all the regions”, an independent political insider from Somaliland who is on vacation in Ottawa told me a few days ago. “The only thing that is not clear at this time is whether there will be an election or not”, he added. It’s also being reported that Chairman Silanyo and Engineer Sayli are also very confident of winning big. I, too, believe that the chairman and the engineer will not only win, but they will win in a landslide and the biggest upset will happen in Awdal – the home region of the president. And I am not alone in the column of people who believe that Kulmiye will prevail. Almost all the political pundits I know believe that the president will get re-elected only and only if the Somaliland people go crazy on Election Day. What are the chances of Engineer Faysal, the leader of UCID Party? Engineer Faysal has better chances than the president does. However, he has an uphill battle to overcome and his chances of wining the highest office in the nation are very slender. But who knows what might happen. Who thought President Rayale would win the presidency in 2003? This is my personal opinion and answer to the question cited in the topic. So please do not get mad and include me in your hit list. But instead, take a deep breath, relax and ask yourself what you can do for your country to make possible that the election will be held on time and that the voting will be carried out properly. I hope that every citizen will cast his ballot according to the law - no cheating and no rigging – and that the people of Somaliland will keep cool as usual and vote intelligently and peacefully as this election will be a major determining factor in the future direction of the country.
*Abdulkarim Hassan Ali grew up in Borama. He currently resides in Ottawa, Canada. He has traveled to and worked in Somaliland for the past several years. Abdulkarim has a doctoral degree (PhD) in Structural Engineering from University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; a Master of Science (MS) degree in Civil Engineering from Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA; and a Bachelor of Science (BS) degree in Civil Engineering from Gahayr College, Mogadishu, Somalia. & meanwhile a prominent american businessman with interests in africa is reported by the financial times as predicting & banking on the breakups not only of somalia & sudan but ethiopia & nigeria too http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4cbe81e-de84-11dd-9464-000077b07658.html cheers |