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Here is an image: - http://www.gci.org.uk/images/sink_failure.pdf It attempts to demonstrate the extent to which global emissions contraction needs to be accelerated if a reference path for future concentrations is to be adhered to in the light of the failure of natural sinks. The standard assumption has been that the airborne fraction of emissions is constant [CAF] at 50% of emissions. This is no longer true. This image shows the extent to which contraction [and inevitably convergence] needs to accelerated to keep constant with a predefined concentration curve. These images show the predicament the other way around; i.e. where reference paths for contraction are adhered to with the concentrations accelerating higher as a result of sink-failure. http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Venice_Presentation.swf The breakdown of CAF is already documented by Hansen and others way ahead of the IPCC. Refs on request. Aubrey Meyer Director Global Commons Institute [GCI] 37 Ravenswood Road LONDON E17 9LY UK Phone 00 44 (0)208 520 4742 email [log in to unmask] web http://www.gci.org.uk To receive C&C development circulars send an email to: [log in to unmask]