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In 'User's Guides to the Medical Literature' the fine book edited by
Guyatt and Rennie it is noted that values further away from the point estimate
are less probable than those closer to the point estimate eg. With a 95%CI
1-16%, the extreme values in the confidence interval are less likely to occur
than those around the observed point estimate eg 8%. I have seen this stated
elsewhere, and while it makes sense intuitively I have not seen any evidence to
support this view. Can anyone direct me to the evidence? Also, does it follow
that if a trial is repeated X times, the observed point estimate for each trial
be normally distributed within the confidence interval of an adequately powered
trial?
Andrew Jull RN MA (Appl)
Research Fellow
Clinical Trials Research Unit
Private Bag 92019
Phone: +64 9 373-7599 extn 84744 Fax: +64
9 373-1710
Email: [log in to unmask] Web: www.ctru.auckland.ac.nz