In a recent discussion among UK agent-based social modellers, I asked
whether there has ever been a correct, publicly documented, model-based
forecast of a policy impact. There are, of course, many such forecasts
tested successfully on past data but none of us were able to produce a
single example of a correct forecast of policy impact reported or
documented prior to the implementation of the policy.
Does anyone know of a correct, real-time, model-based, policy-impact
forecast? Please include references to publications of the forecast
prior to policy implementation or to some other evidence that the
forecast preceded the impact.
Many thanks in advance,