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URBAN-LABOUR-LEISURE-JOURNAL  December 1999

URBAN-LABOUR-LEISURE-JOURNAL December 1999

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Subject:

Labour Market Analysis Scottish New Towns

From:

"Jeroen Rogier van Alphen" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Jeroen Rogier van Alphen

Date:

Thu, 09 Dec 1999 12:35:43 CET

Content-Type:

text/plain

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text/plain (311 lines)

Please find below the recent Labour Market Analysis of Scottish New Towns by 
Alex Morton, Senior Policy Advisor, Enterprise Resources - Strategic 
Services, South Lanarkshire Council, Scotland.
--
Jeroen van Alphen
Project Coordinator

INTA - The International Urban Development Association
Nassau Dillenburgstraat 44
2596 AE Den Haag
The Netherlands
Tel: +31-70-3244526
Fax: +31-70-3280727
http://www.inta-aivn.org


SCOTTISH NEW TOWNS LABOUR MARKET ANALYSIS

A report by Strategic Services Section, South Lanarkshire Council

1. Background
1.1 In 1996, at the time of re-organisation of local government in Scotland, 
the five New Town Corporations in Scotland were also formally wound up. 
These operated in Cumbernauld, East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Irvine and 
Livingston.
1.2 This report looks at the trends in the labour market in these areas in 
the run up to their dissolution and since then. The old Development 
Corporations used to maintain significant economic monitoring systems but 
these all ceased to operate when they were wound up. As a result, this 
report uses official information that is readily available.
1.3 The council areas that the New Towns were in – North Lanarkshire, South 
Lanarkshire, Fife, North Ayrshire and West Lothian – were approached and 
geographical definitions of the areas of the respective New Towns were 
agreed using the 1991 District Wards.
1.4 Employees in employment data from 1984 to 1997 were used, as was 
claimant unemployment data for the period 1991 to 1998. It was not possible 
to go back further in time due to the inability to get small area 
information prior to these dates.
1.5 In the time available, it has not been possible to adjust the figures 
for changes in official methods of collecting employment and unemployment 
data during these periods. As a result, the interpretations contained in 
this report should be viewed as indicative of trends rather than of actual 
changes of the size described.

2. Summary of Findings
2.1 Taking the New Town’s together, then since dissolution, in employment 
terms, they have continued to create more employment opportunities than 
Scotland as a whole. In unemployment terms, the situation is more complex. 
Unemployment differentials have narrowed, and more of Scotland’s unemployed 
live in these areas than in the past. This reflects both a younger age 
profile and higher economic activity rates in these areas creating a 
relatively greater labour supply.
2.2 However, the analysis suggests that the momentum of the New Towns as 
‘growth poles’ in the West of Scotland was seriously effected by the 
dissolution of the New Towns Corporations in April 1996. Since then, in both 
employment and unemployment terms, the three Western Scotland New Town 
areas, in general, have under-performed in comparison to Scotland as a 
whole.
2.2 In the case of Livingston and Glenrothes, the situation is one of 
continuing faster employment creation and a decline in unemployment greater 
or near to the Scottish average.
3. Trends in Employee jobs

3.1 In 1984, New Towns accounted for 4.6% of Scotland’s total employee in 
employment jobs – 87,420 jobs in total. They accounted for 5.6% of its 
Industrial jobs (Manufacturing, Construction and Energy production) and 4.2% 
of its Service employment. For Manufacturing alone, their share was 7.2%.
3.2 In 1995, the year before they were wound up, their share of total 
employee jobs was 5.4%, with their share of Industrial employment being 
8.5%, and of Service’s employment being 4.5%. Their share of Scotland’s 
Manufacturing employment was then 11.2%
3.3 By 1997 – the latest date for which information is available, the former 
new Towns accounted for 5.5% of all Scotland’s employee jobs, 8.6% of its 
Industrial employment and 4.6% of its Service employment. In terms of 
Manufacturing employment their share was 11.4%.
3.4 Table 1 shows the numbers in Total, Industrial, Services and 
Manufacturing employment in Scotland and the New Towns as a whole, as well 
as the percentage change over the 1984-95 and 1995-97 period.
Table 1: Employees in Employment – 1984, 1995 and 1997

	1984	1995	1997	1984-95	1995-97
Total
Scotland	1,903,863	1,998,636	1,963,384	+5.0	-1.8
New Towns	87,420	107,790	109,015	+23.3	+1.1

Industrial
Scotland 	637,781	479,128	472,542	-24.9	-1.4
New Towns	35,701	40,905	40,793	+14.7	-0.4

Services
Scotland 	1,229,408	1,480,271	1,478,534	+20.4	-0.1
New Towns	51,319	66,707	68,165	+30.0	+2.2

Manufacturing
Scotland 	433,708	321,207	322,067	-25.9	+0.3
New Towns	31,426	36,077	36,580	+14.8	+1.4

3.5 As the above table shows, overall during the earlier period – 1984 to 
1995 – the New Towns as a whole ‘out-performed’ Scotland by a factor of 
nearly 5 times (+23.3% compared to +5%).
3.6 This better performance was led by the Industrial (and within it 
Manufacturing) sector. Manufacturing employment grew by +14.8% compared to a 
fall of –25.9% in Scotland as a whole. Service employment showed the largest 
percentage increase in both the New Towns as a whole and in Scotland. In 
grew in the New Towns by +30% compared to a +20.4% increase in Scotland as a 
whole.
3.7 To some extent this faster growth reflects the continuing efforts of 
inward investment promotion agencies encouraging investment and 
re-investment in the New Towns during this period. It may also reflect the 
population characteristics - and the population growth - of the New Towns, 
which are generally younger and attracting service provision
3.8 Over the 1995-97 period, whilst total employment fell in Scotland as a 
whole (by –1.8%), it grew overall in the New Towns by +1.1%. Industrial 
employment fell in both the New Towns and Scotland as a whole, but the 
decline in the New Towns was less than a third of the Scottish decline.
3.9  Within the Industrial sector, Manufacturing employment grew in both 
Scotland and the New Towns, but the rate of growth in the New Towns was 
nearly five times that in Scotland as a whole.
3.10 In terms of Industrial employment, the changes here reflect, in the 
main, declines in Construction employment. This decline was more than 
sufficient in the New Towns as a whole, to offset the growth in the 
Manufacturing element of Industrial employment.
3.11 This fall may be as a result of construction activity running down as 
the Development Corporations ceased their investment plans, but it may also 
reflect a more general decline in construction investment since the areas 
lost their New Town status.
3.12 Service employment grew by +2.2% in the New Towns between 1995 and 
1997. This compares with a –0.1% decline in Scotland as a whole.
3.13 Looking at the trends in each of the New Towns individually shows a 
more complex pattern. Table 2 shows the percentage change in Total 
employment experienced as a whole and for each New Town over the 1984-95 and 
1995-97 periods.
3.14 As this table shows, over the earlier period, all the New Towns 
experienced significant overall job growth, ranging from +50% in Livingston 
and +43.3% in Cumbernauld to +20.1% in Irvine and +14.2% in East Kilbride. 
However, the job growth in Glenrothes, at 3.7%, was actually below the 
Scottish average. This was the only New Town with a smaller employment 
growth than in Scotland as a whole.



Table 2: Percentage change in Total employee jobs 1984-95 and 1995-97

	1984-95	1995-97
SCOTLAND	+5.0	-1.8
NEW TOWNS	+23.3	+1.1

Cumbernauld	+43.4	-9.5
East Kilbride	+14.2	-5.5
Glenrothes	+3.7	+11.1
Irvine	+20.1	-1.4
Livingston	+50.0	+14.1

3.15 Over the 1995-97 period, the situation has changed. Only in Livingston 
and Glenrothes has employment continued to grow – by +14.1% and +11.1% 
respectively. This compares with a fall in employment in Scotland as a whole 
of –1.8%.
3.16 In the West of Scotland New Towns, total employment fell during this 
period. In the case of East Kilbride and Cumbernauld, the fall in employment 
of –5.5% and –9.5% was significantly higher than in Scotland as a whole. 
Irvine’s fall of –1.4% was below the national decline of –1.8%.
3.17 In the case of Cumbernauld, employment in all sectors – Manufacturing, 
Industrial and Services – has declined over the 1995-97 period. Industrial 
employment has fallen by –25%, and Services employment by –0.9%. 
Manufacturing employment fell by -22% over this period.
3.18 In East Kilbride, the same situation occurred, with its Industrial 
employment falling by –11.8% and Service employment falling by –1.4%. 
Manufacturing employment fell by –9.3%.
3.19 In Irvine, Industrial employment only fell by –0.2% (and Manufacturing 
employment actually grew by +0.5%). Service employment fell by –2.3%, the 
largest percentage fall in each of the New Town areas.
3.20 In Glenrothes, employment grew in all sectors, with Industrial 
employment growing by +22.9% and Services employment by +2.1%. Livingston 
saw its Industrial employment grow by +16.3% over the 1995-97 period and its 
Service’s employment by +13.1%. Manufacturing employment grew by +23.9% in 
Glenrothes over this period, and by +15.7% in Livingston.


4. Trends in Claimant unemployment

4.1 Small area unemployment information only really became readily available 
with the introduction of the claimant unemployment statistics in late 1982. 
During the 1980s, there were a number of changes made to the regulations 
governing eligibility to claim the then Unemployment Benefit. Data at a ward 
level also only became available much later.
4.2 This analysis has been undertaken using claimant unemployment annual 
averages from 1991 to 1998. Unemployment rates have been calculated for the 
New Towns by dividing the number of resident claimants by the economically 
active population of the area taken from the 1991 Census of Population.
4.3 In 1991, just over 5% (5.02%) of Scotland’s claimant unemployed lived in 
the New Town areas. This increased to 5.24% in 1992, before falling to a low 
of 4.83% in 1995. Since then, it has been increasing and by 1998, the former 
New Town areas accounted for 5.34% of Scotland’s unemployed – their highest 
percentage ever recorded in the 1990s.
4.4 Although claimant unemployment is dominated by men – with on average 
over three-quarters of claimants being men – the New Towns actually have a 
greater proportion of Scotland’s female claimants than of male claimants in 
every year. During the 1990s, their share of Scotland’s female unemployed 
was always over 5% - reaching a low of 5.16% in 1995, and peaking at a 5.74% 
share in 1998.  In over half the years, their share of male unemployed was 
under 5% - with its low point being a 4.73% share in 1995, and its high 
being a share of 5.22% in 1998.
4.5 This difference may well reflect the greater job opportunities for women 
in the New Towns compared to Scotland as a whole, and therefore a greater 
opportunity for them to be eligible for benefit should they become 
unemployed.
4.6  In terms of unemployment rates, the overall rate for the New Towns is 
close to the Scottish average. Over the whole period, the rate was lower in 
4 years and higher in 4 years. For women, the unemployment rate was higher 
in every year, with a marked differential in the relative situation 
appearing in 1996.
4.7  For men, the unemployment rate was lower in every year except 1992. It 
experienced a relative decline between 1992 and 1995, but since then the gap 
has narrowed, with its 1998 relative figure being the highest since 1993.
4.8 Over the 1991-98 period, the number of claimant unemployed fell by 
-31.6% in the New Town areas. This was below the Scottish decline of –35.8%.
4.9 Between 1996 and 1998, unemployment has continued to fall in both the 
New Town areas and in Scotland as a whole, with the decline in the New Town 
areas being less than in Scotland as whole – falls of –25.1% compared to a 
Scottish decline of –27.5%.
4.10 Table 3 shows the unemployment rates for the combined New Towns and 
Scotland, the relative rate and its share of the overall total between 1991 
and 1998.
Table 3: Annual average claimant unemployment figures

	Scottish rate	New town rate	Relative rate	Number of New Town 
claimants	Share of unemployed
1991	8.8	8.6	97.7	11,050	5.02
1992	9.5	9.8	103.2	12,635	5.24
1993	9.8	9.8	100.0	12,684	5.15
1994	9.4	8.9	94.7	11,464	4.95
1995	8.1	7.6	93.8	9,287	4.83
1996	7.8	7.8	100.0	10,088	5.17
1997	6.6	6.3	95.4	8,093	5.07
1998	5.8	5.8	100.0	7,553	5.34

4.11 Looking at the situation for each of the individual New Town areas, 
again shows significant differences between them. Table 4 shows summary 
information for each New Town in 1991, 1996 and 1998, and the percentage 
change in total claimant unemployment over the 1991-98 and 1996-98 period. 
The Scottish averages are also shown.
Table 4: Claimant unemployment rates and percentage changes

	1991	1996	1998	1991-98	1996-98
Scotland	8.8	8.1	5.8	-35.8	-27.5
New Towns	8.6	7.8	5.8	-31.6	-25.1
Cumbernauld	7.9	6.6	5.4	-31.6	-18.4
East Kilbride	7.4	6.7	4.3	-41.2	-32.5
Glenrothes	7.8	8.9	6.5	-16.1	-26.8
Irvine	11.1	10.0	8.3	-25.6	-17.4
Livingston	8.7	7.7	5.2	-40.7	-33.0

4.12 Over both of the period being analysed – the 1991-98 and 1996-98 
periods – the declines in claimant unemployment in both East Kilbride and 
Livingston were greater than in Scotland as a whole. Over the whole period 
the decline was around 5 percentage points faster, and over the shorter 
period, it was around the same for East Kilbride but nearer six percentage 
points in the case of Livingston.
4.13  East Kilbride’s unemployment rate has been below the national average 
throughout the period, and the gap has widened steadily since 1992. Then it 
was 90% of the national average, but by 1998, it was less than 75% (74.7%) 
of the national average.
4.14 In the case of Livingston, its unemployment rate was above the national 
rate in 1992 –when it was nearly 5 percent above the national rate – and has 
declined but not as significantly as in East Kilbride. It remained around 
the 94% of the national rate for the 1993-95 period, but by 1997 it was down 
to only 86.4% of the national rate. In 1998, it had, however, come closer to 
the national average (at 89.2%). This was still its second best relative 
position during the 1990s.
4.15 In the case of Cumbernauld, its unemployment rate was below the 
national rate throughout the period. It reached a relative low in 1995, when 
it was just 82% of the national rate. Since then it has increased steadily, 
so that by 1998, its unemployment rate was 93% of the national rate (5.4% as 
compared to 5.8%). This is its highest relative position since 1992. Whereas 
over the entire period, its fall in unemployment was only just over 4 
percentage points lower than the national decline, over the 1996-98 period, 
this difference grew to be over 9 percentage points.
4.16 Whilst across the entire period, the decline in Glenrothes’s 
unemployment was the lowest of any of the New Towns at just -16.1% (less 
than half of the national decline of –35.8%). However, between 1996 and 
1998, its unemployment decline of 26.8% (although still below the national 
average), was significantly closer to the national average of 27.5%.
4.17 Throughout the early 1990s, the unemployment rate in Glenrothes was 
below the national average, reaching a figure of only 83.6% of the national 
rate in 1995. Since then, the relative position has worsened so that in 
1998, its estimated rate of 6.5% is some 12% higher than the national rate 
of 5.8%.
4.18 In Irvine’s case, its unemployment rate has always been above the 
national average, and the highest for any New Town area. In both 1992 and 
1993 it was over a third higher than the national rate. Its low point was in 
1994, when it was only just under a quarter higher than the national rate. 
Since then, its relative position has worsened so that in 1998, its 
unemployment rate was 43% higher than the national rate (8.3% compared to 
5.8%).
4.19 Over the entire period, claimant unemployment has fallen by –25.6% in 
Irvine, over 10 percentage points lower than the national rate (-35.8%). 
Over the 1996-98 period, its decline in unemployment was again around 10 
percentage points lower than the national decline.


A Morton / A Lambie
Strategic Services, Enterprise Resources
South Lanarkshire Council
December 1999

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