Here, for information and discussion, are some clarifications (from UK
Green Party peace and security people) of what will/could happen now that
the Yugoslav Government has agreed to meet NATO / EU condidtions.
1. Will the bombing stop?
Not immediately. The agreement should end the bombing, but at NATO
discretion. Indications are that bombing is to stop once the Serb forces
in Kosovo have packed up and their withdrawal is clearly under way. It
is likely things will go wrong.
2. What about the damage?
There is no commitment to make good the damage done to
infrastructure and environment by the NATO bombardment of Yugoslavia.
Current indications are that this will be used as a lever against
Milosevic, encouraging further struggle and suffering in Serbia.
The damage affects not only Serbia, but also neighbouring countries
which have suffered directly or consequently. Examples are the pollution
of river systems from bombing of chemical and petrochemical
installations, the blocking of Danube and other communications links,
and in particular the Yugoslav republic of Montenegro, impartially
bombed by the UN despite opposing Milosevic.
All that is offered those countries is a sop, a general commitment to do
not very much about regional economic development.
3. Did the bombing succeed?
No. The agreement was reached after 72 days of bombardment and Serb
defiance. It was reached immediately Milosevic was convinced that if he
did not agree then a ground intervention would follow sooner or later.
4. What do the Kosovars think?
The Kosovars were not included; agreement was imposed without involving
either the LDK or UCK groups.
The Rambouillet prospect of a referendum on independence for Kosovo is
now only to be considered. It is replaced by a much less specific
commitment to a process towards self-rule of Kosovo within Yugoslavia,
combined with demilitarisation of the (UCK) Kosovo Liberation Army,
currently their only functioning organisation. Such self-determination
as Kosovars get will be within the confines of this agreement in which
they had no voice.
5. Are the Serbs going to maintain a military and government presence in
Kosovo?
Serb armed forces and paramilitaries will leave Kosovo, but Yugoslavia
is allowed to retain a number to be agreed as border guards, at
historical Serb sites etc. There will be disputes over this, and over
who will be in the continuing civil administration. The agreement states
that under UN supervision the Kosovars should have "meaningful autonomy"
within Yugoslavia, which implies a continuing federal government over
Kosovo.
6. What about the Serb minority among the Kosovars?
This is not addressed. Tension over the remaining Yugoslav
government presence will be increased if the remaining Serb minority see
it and its forces as their only protection against the Albanian
majority.
7. What about the UN, NATO and Russia?
The prospect of difficulties with the Serb minority is heightened by the
decision to use NATO as the backbone of the military force guaranteeing
security in Kosovo.
There is to be a UN mandate, and a unified command. This does not
entirely fit with assertions about the separate role of Russian forces.
The point is not clear. A particular problem is concern that a Russian
"zone" in the north-east, next to Serbia, might lead to partition and
the loss of its natural resources to Kosovo.
David.
David Wood
PhD Student ('The Rural Peace Dividend')
Department of Agricultural Economics and Food Marketing
University of Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU
0191 222 5305
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