UNIVERSITY OF HERTFORDSHIRE STATISTICS GROUP SEMINAR SERIES
Sponsored by Department of Statistics, Accounting and
Management Systems, Business School, University of Hertfordshire.
Wednesday 10th November 1999, time 11:30am, Hatfield Campus, Room A222
Clive Payne (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)
Title: "Targeting Floating Voters with Statistical Models"
Abstract:
"In recent general Elections in the UK, the main political parties
have used statistical models to analyse their private polls. The
main aim of these is to identify issues which predispose voters to
vote for/against their party. The results of these models are then
used to help inform the political campaigns of the parties.
The talk describes the modelling work done for the Labour Party in
the run-up to its successful campaign in the UK General Election in
May 1997. The models used were straightforward logistic models of the
propensity of floating voters to vote for the two main protagonists,
Conservative and Labour, with adjustments for voter demographics. The
emphasis in the talk is on problems of applying and interpreting
such models for the politicians and their campaign managers.
Other issues addressed will include:
- why model: the added value which modelling brings to the analysis
of political opinion polls
- the relative roles of focus groups and statistical modelling in
informing campaign strategies
- why models should be restricted to floating voters
- the non-technical interpretation of odds ratios and model inference
- the results of the statistical models fitted and the guidance
given to the campaign managers of the Labour Party.
- the analysis of trends in the voter's attitudes to the parties and
their policies."
Wednesday 12th January 2000, time 12:30pm, Hertford Campus, Room M113
Teaching Statistics to Business Students: a video and discussion
Chaired by Clare Morris, Associate Dean (Academic Quality),
Business School, University of Hertfordshire
Wednesday 22nd March 2000, time 2:30pm, Hatfield Campus, Room A209
Tony Fielding (University of Birmingham)
Title and Abstract to follow.
Wednesday 3rd May 2000, time 2:30pm, Hertford Campus, Room tba
Roger Jones (University of Hertfordshire)
Title and Abstract to follow.
Wednesday 7th June 2000, time 2:30pm, Hatfield Campus, Room A209
Michael Healy (Visiting Professor, University of Hertfordshire)
Title and Abstract to follow.
For further information regarding location, parking, etc.,
please contact Neil Spencer (details below)
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Dr Neil H Spencer,
Senior Lecturer in Statistics,
Department of Statistics, Accounting and Management Systems,
University of Hertfordshire,
Hertford Campus, Mangrove Road,
Hertford, SG13 8QF,
ENGLAND.
Telephone: +44 1707 285529
Fax: +44 1707 285489
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
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