THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
Thursday 21st January 1999 7:15 for 7:45
The Large Seminar Room,
Institute of Public Health,
University Forvie Site,
Applying Practical Bayesian Methods to Help Design
and Monitor a Clinical Trial
M.R.C. Cancer Trials Office,
Abstract: The talk will take the audience through a real trial in which
Bayesian methods were used to help design the trial and monitor the ongoing
results. An independent data monitoring committee was appointed to
confidentially review the accumulating results. The results and their
Bayesian interpretation (as presented to the independent data monitoring
committee) will be presented. The audience will be encouraged to actively
participate in this presentation taking the role of the data monitoring
Speaker: Max Parmar joined the MRC Cancer Trials Office in 1987 after
completing a PhD in Medical Statistics at Oxford University. In his time
there he has been responsible for designing, coordinating and analysing over
30 cancer clinical trials. He has also been involved in designing and
analysing individual patient data meta-analyses. Recently, the MRC Cancer
Trials Office has merged with the MRC HIV Clinical Trials Centre to form the
MRC Clinical Trials Unit. Max is the Head of the Cancer Division of this
new unit. His methodological research interests include Bayesian methods,
design and analysis of clinical trials, interim analysis, meta-analysis, and
the design and analysis of observer agreement studies.
Directions: (From Central Cambridge) Turn right off Hills Road into the
Addenbrooke's site then turn left at the hospital roundabout onto Robinson
Way. Follow Robinson Way until you see an access road on the left signed
'Forvie Site' (but note that the sign is on your right). Turn into the
access road and follow signs - first to the Institute and then to the
Large Seminar Room. There is ample car parking. The front doors will be
locked at 7:45.
18th February - Ken Lakhani (Animal Health Trust) on 'Man's Best Friend is
Dog, Dog's Best Friend is a Statistician'.
25th March - Alistair Murray (British Antarctic Survey) on 'A Biometrician
at Sea - Problems in Antarctic Marine Ecology'.
(PLEASE NOTE CHANGE OF DATE!)
May - Nick Goldman (Genetics) on 'Hidden Markov Models of Protein
Structure and Protein Sequence Evolution.'
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each meeting at 6-15. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 4 pounds per member are now due for the 1998-9 session.
Cheques should be made payable to Margaret Corbett and may be posted
to the secretary at the address below.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 2EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 380;
E-mail [log in to unmask]