The Royal Statistical Society Ordinary Meeting on 22 April is as follows:
Daniela De Angelis (1) (2)
Walter R Gilks (1)
Nicholas E Day (1)
(1) MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge
(2) PHLS AIDS Centre at Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London
Bayesian projection of the AIDS epidemic
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Synopsis: Short-term projections of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales
have been regularly updated since 1988. The key approach for these updates
has been the back-calculation method, which has been informally adapted to
acknowledge various sources of uncertainty as well as to incorporate
increasingly available information on the spread of HIV in the population.
We propose a Bayesian formulation of the back-calculation method which
allows formal treatment of uncertainty and inclusion of extra information,
within a single coherent composite model. Estimation of the variably
dimensioned model is carried out using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte
Carlo methods. Application of the model to data for homosexual/bisexual
males in England and Wales is presented.
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Copies of the paper are available in advance of the meeting from the RSS
(not from me) for the purpose of preparing a contribution to the
discussion, to be either delivered in person at the meeting or submitted to
the RSS for me to read out at the meeting.
The meeting starts at 5pm (tea from 4.30pm) on Wednesday 22 April at the
RSS, 12 Errol Street, London EC1. All are welcome to attend.
There will be a buffet supper afterwards to continue informal discussion.
Please contact the RSS if you wish to book supper (must be done in
advance).
Thank you.
Paul Allin
Hon Meetings Sec, RSS
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