At 13:03 31/03/2020, Moore, Robert wrote:
>I guess most list members will have seen this –
>but just in case some haven’t ……
Indeed, so I fear that these ONS figures are
going to be of very little value in relation to
tracking the progress of our outbreak, and of the
effects of measures we take to try to limit spread....
... the ONS weekly figures relate to deaths
registered in the week ending 11 days previously
(hence the week starting 18 days previously) and,
given the 5-day window for registering a death
(assuming it has not been extended) means that it
could relate to deaths up to 23 days prior to release of the report.
If we assume a 25 day period between infection
and death (5 days incubation + 6 days mild
illness + 14 days hospitalisation prior to
death), that means that it could be anything up
to 48 days before the effects of
containment/mitigation measures were reflected in the ONS death figures.
Kind Regards,
John
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