At 20:39 13/03/2020, Greg Dropkin wrote:
>the ratio has mean = 1.32 and is fairly stable.
>Over the next fortnight, if growth remains like this, we can expect
>797 * 1.32^14 = almost 39,000 cases, far beyond the current level in Italy.
If regarded as a purely mathematical exercise, without considering
any biology and 'interventions', I have to agree.
However, I don't think that any country (not even China) has yet
shown a ratio approaching 1.32 that was sustained for anything like
14 days, so that mathematical model may be significantly 'less than
perfect' in terms of what is actually likely to happen.
Mind you, if you took the view (that many seem to) that the current
true number of infected people in the UK was "at least 10,000" (and
perhaps a lot more), rather than 797, the result of your calculations
would be considerably more frightening!
Kind Regards,
John
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