All
I am sure I am not alone in being asked the question how MaaS and CAVs may affect the future operation of transport systems. Some colleagues have responded to that challenge by developing new transport modelling approaches, for example agent-based models, and I have seen some impressive results.
However, from what I have seen, rather than the model approach, it is mainly the assumptions about the new mode alternatives that determine the outcomes, irrespective of whether these are applied in traditional four-step models or using more advanced techniques. For example, what is the assumed speed or road capacity increase for Level 5 CAVs, how do travellers perceive the sharing of vehicles, assumed ASCs for electric scooters, the representation of fixed and variable costs in MaaS alternatives, the value of time assumed for those travelling by CAV.
To gain further insight how different assumptions lead to different futures, I am interested in getting access to model studies that have used existing as well as novel model techniques but most importantly, explicit future mobility assumptions to test the sensitivity of outcomes to these assumptions. I would be grateful for any suggestions for reading material that you can send me to my email address below, or that is accessible via the internet. And I am happy to share my summary interpretation and literature list.
Tom van Vuren, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT and Mott MacDonald, Level 10, 383 Kent Street, Sydney
E [log in to unmask], T +61 (0)290986815, M +61 (0)415949447 Twitter @tvanvuren
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