Short courses: Expert Knowledge Elicitation
Elicitation with SHELF: 3-4 September 2018
Advanced Facilitation: 5th September 2018, repeated on 6th September
Leopold Hotel, Sheffield, UK
Course faculty
Professor Anthony O’Hagan, Professor Jeremy Oakley, Dr John Paul Gosling,
Dr Kate Ren, Dr John Stevens
Background
Expert knowledge elicitation is the process of extracting an expert's (or
group of experts') knowledge about some unknown quantity of interest, and
constructing a probability distribution to represent the expert's
uncertainty about the quantity. It is often used in a decision-making or
risk analysis context, when suitable data are unavailable, so that one is
reliant upon expert opinion; it enables the uncertainties to be properly
quantified and understood. This course will cover the Sheffield Elicitation
Framework (SHELF) method of elicitation: a behavioural aggregation method
for eliciting probability distributions from a group of experts.
Course structure
The first two days (September 3-4) will comprise a comprehensive short
course, Elicitation with SHELF. The course will cover the principles of
expert elicitation and the SHELF method, together with practical
considerations in planning and running a SHELF elicitation workshop.
Participants may choose to attend the first two days only.
The key role in the SHELF method is that of the facilitator. The Advanced
Facilitation course will involve intensive, small group, hands-on sessions
for participants who wish to be trained to act as facilitators. Each
trainee will gain practical experience of facilitating a SHELF elicitation
workshop, using carefully designed and realistic scenarios. Trainees will
also gain experience in another important role, that of the recorder. Each
day is open to a maximum of four trainees. To attend an Advanced
Facilitation course, participants must have attended either the first two
days, or a previous Elicitation with SHELF course.
Course fees are set out in the table. Early bird rates apply for
registration up to July 31st.
Course Early bird Regular
Elicitation with SHELF £500 £575
Advanced Facilitation £1450 £1600
Course fees include lunch and refreshments. Participants will need to
arrange their own accommodation.
For further details and registration, please go to
http://www.tonyohagan.co.uk/shelf/CourseSep18.html
--
Professor Jeremy Oakley
School of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Sheffield
The Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
Sheffield S3 7RH, UK
Phone: +44 114 222 3853
http://jeremy-oakley.staff.shef.ac.uk/
<http://www.jeremy-oakley.staff.shef.ac.uk/>
http://uncertainty-quantification.group.shef.ac.uk/
http://statistics.group.shef.ac.uk/
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