Dear All,

On 1 September, I posed the following questions.

Is this [a large rise of paper records after 2004 but particularly after 2008] unique to Durham, or have other RO found a similar growth of accrual rates after or around 2004?



What is the likely lag effect before born digital reduces the paper accrual rate? In other words, has anyone started to see an early effect from born digital?



What is current accrual rate for digital records?



I am particularly interested in answers to the 3rd question. So far, no one has responded to these questions. There was one response to the post, but no answers to these questions. I appreciate that no one is required to answer nor that anyone need answer. However, I posed these questions as I thought they went to the heart of the issue as archives face digital tsunami and that the archives relevance in the transition from paper to digital era will be measured or seen in the way it manages the digital archives.



Is it that archivists are not monitoring this situation or that digital record collections have not reached a point at which their impact can be measured?



Best,



Lawrence





Lawrence Serewicz

Information and Records Manager

Transformation and Partnerships

Durham County Council

County Hall

Room 143-148 4th Floor

Durham

County Durham

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-----Original Message-----

From: Lawrence Serewicz

Sent: 01 September 2017 10:12

To: [log in to unmask]

Cc: Lawrence Serewicz <[log in to unmask]>

Subject: Accrual rates (paper and digital) and the digital effects from 2004 onward



Dear All,

I was wondering, following the discussion earlier on accrual rates, if the digital effect needs to be considered in several different ways.

First, have we considered the accrual rates for digital records. Does anyone have figures on that they can share to indicate whether we are seeing an early effect of born digital.



Second, has anyone seen a punctured equilibrium point with their paper accrual rate on or around 2004 or at all?



What I am suggesting is that paper transition to digital records will have a lag effect as digital preservation systems have a limited, delayed effect on paper creation.



Paper created a steady accrual rate as it was difficult to create documents, typing pools, limited  reprographic services,  and other systems for limiting document and record creation either by intent or accident.



I noticed this while examining Durham County Council's accrual rate over the last 30 years. There was a steady accumulation of records from 1986 to 2004 with only a 16% increase in that time. ~12k linear feet to ~14k linear feet



In 2004 the accrual rate increased steadily and rapidly as it went up 25% over the next 13 years from ~14k to ~18k.  (over the 30 years we saw a ~50% increase 12k to 18k)



I would suggest that the effect after 2004 was, all things being equal, the digital effect. As more people had computers they created more paper records and did not think of leaving digital records. With everyone being able to create documents and records as well as the explosion of ways in which documents and records could be produced, the volume of paper records going to the RO increased.



Based on this evidence, though, the questions I have are the following:

Is this unique to Durham, or have other RO found a similar growth of accrual rates after or around 2004?



What is the likely lag effect before born digital reduces the paper accrual rate? In other words, has anyone started to see an early effect from born digital?



What is current accrual rate for digital records?



My hypothesis is that any born digital effect is at least a generation away as it will take that long for the software and the processes to be adapted widely enough to slow the volume of paper going to the RO. I am building this argument on the evidence that take up of new technology and new practices takes a lot longer than it appears since it is not simply adapting the technology so much as changing the behaviour within the organisations and individuals to think of digital preservation and provide it digitally to the RO.



As a result, I would argue that paper accrual rates will continue at an increasing rate, or even at a slowly increasing rate, for the next 15 years before we see the born digital and digital preservation effect.



What are your thoughts based on your paper and digital accrual rates and the take up of born digital?



I look forward to your comments on and off the list.

Thanks



Lawrence

Information and Records Manager

Durham County Council









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