The next RSS Merseyside Local Group meeting will take place on Tuesday 6th June at 13.00pm at the University of Liverpool. Room 521, Cedar House (Building 360, gridsquare D10 on campus map - https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/files/docs/maps/liverpool-university-campus-map.pdf).
We welcome Dr Lee Fawcett from Newcastle University, and Professor Jonathan Rougier from Bristol University to talk about Anticipating Extreme Events.
13:00 – 13:45 – Dr Lee Fawcett (Newcastle University)
Optimal estimation strategies for environmental extremes
Accurate and precise estimation of return levels is often a key goal of any extreme value analysis. For example, in the UK the British Standards Institution incorporate estimates of ‘once-in-50-year wind gust speeds’—or 50-year return levels—into their design codes for new structures; similarly, the Dutch Delta Commission use estimates of the 10,000-year return level for sea-surge to aid the construction of flood defence systems. We present an estimation framework which can substantially increase the precision of return level estimates relative to commonly-used procedures. Working within the Bayesian paradigm, we also exploit the posterior predictive distribution to provide practitioners with a single point estimate which encapsulates uncertainty due to parameter estimation and randomness in future observations. A simulation study confirms the posterior predictive return level as superior to other more commonly-used return level posterior summaries. We also demonstrate a user-friendly software tool, which has been developed to encourage greater engagement between academics and practitioners.
13:45 – 14:00 Tea & Coffee break
14:00 – 14:45 Professor Jonathan Rougier (Bristol University)
Assessing the risk from large volcanic eruptions: Understanding the historical record
Volcanoes threaten many millions of people worldwide, disproportionately in developing countries. Fortunately, large explosive volcanic eruptions are rare, but this also makes it harder to assess the rate of eruptions for the purposes of risk assessment. This difficulty is compounded by an unreliable historical record, in which the probability of an eruption being recorded in a modern database is affected by the size of the eruption, and also the time and location. In joint work with volcanologists Steve Sparks and Kathy Cashman, I have been quantifying the recording probability regionally as a function of time, for large eruptions. From a mathematical point of view, this application has some intriguing features. Our results so far suggest that under-recording is much more severe than previously thought. We think that a similar situation exists for other major hazards, such as earthquakes.
14:45 – 15:00 – Q & A session
ALL ARE WELCOME
As ever, please register in advance (https://sites.google.com/site/rssmerseyside/research-meetings/anticipating-extreme-events?pli=1) so that we can arrange relevant refreshments.
Kind regards,
Maria Sudell
Secretary, RSS Merseyside Local Group
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