hope it's ok to do a very late followup on this...
I am trying to use the procedure below to estimate the posterior probability of a parameter that has a mean of 0.5406 and a std of 0.0569.
When I put these values into the code below 1-(spm_Ncdf(0,0.5406,0.0569^2)), spm_Ncdf becomes 0, and thus the posterior probability becomes 1. Is it really possible for the posterior probability to be 1? What does this mean conceptually, and how would you apply Bonferroni-correction to an spm_Ncdf of 0?