The State of the Art in the Use of Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analyses​.
July 3rd to 5th, 2017
TU Delft
The Netherlands
In a recent blog, Roger Cooke noted that the expert judgement in risk analyses was becoming mainstream (http://www.rff.org/blog/2016/respectability-looming-expert-judgment-announcing-justin-eggstaff-s-rff-academic-seminar). Implicit use of expert judgement has always been present in any analysis, if only in selecting the data, models and analytic methods to use. But it is now common to use panels of experts to provide judgement of key uncertainties when there are few relevant data. Now in its fourth year, the COST Network (Action IS1304) on "Expert Judgment: Bridging the Gap Between Scientific Uncertainty and Evidence-Based Decision Making" has surveyed the use of expert judgement in many risk domains (http://www.expertsinuncertainty.net/). So we believe that it is timely to reflect on and pull together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgements from panels of experts in assessing risks and taking decisions in complex circumstances.
The conference will take place at the Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands from Monday 3rd July to Wednesday 5th July, 2017. It will include keynote papers, contributed sessions, discussions and poster sessions. We intend that a selection of the papers and the conclusions of our discussions will be published in the conference proceedings. Further details will become available on http://www.expertsinuncertainty.net/ in the coming weeks. In the meantime if you are interested in attending or if you are interested in contributing a paper, please email both [log in to unmask] and [log in to unmask] If you are thinking of offering a paper, a title and short abstract (~150-250 words) would be helpful.
Simon French and Tina Nane
|