University of Edinburgh
School of Mathematics and BioSS
Date: Friday 10th Feb, 15:10 Location: JCMB 6201
Speaker: Professor Philip O'Neill, University of Nottingham
Title: Modelling and Bayesian inference for the Abakaliki smallpox data
Abstract: In 1967, an outbreak of smallpox occurred in the Nigerian town of Abakaliki. The details were recorded in a World Health Organisation report, and the resulting data set has reappeared numerous times in the literature on infectious disease modelling. Surprisingly, in virtually all cases most of the available data are ignored. Moreover, the one previous analysis which does consider the full data set uses approximation methods to fit a stochastic transmission model. We present a new analysis which avoids such approximations, using data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
This seminar is a part of Maxwell Institute seminar series.
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