The next RSS Merseyside Local Group meeting will take place on Thursday 17th November at 2.00pm at the University of Liverpool. The exact location will be announced nearer the time.
We welcome David Firth from the University of Warwick to discuss the statistics of football Leagues.
14:00-15:00 David Firth (Professor of Statistics & WDSI Director, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick)
Football leagues: A better mid-season ranking than the points tally?
A generalization of the Bradley-Terry model is developed which yields end-of-season agreement with league standings, in balanced round-robin leagues with simple win-draw-loss points systems such as the 3-1-0 system used in association football. This allows mid-season "strength of schedule" differences to be eliminated coherently, in order to produce match-by-match league standings that typically are more meaningful than the familiar ranking based on accumulated points. Results from several seasons of major European football leagues are used to assess the appropriateness of the model, and to calibrate it in aspects such as the relative frequency of draws and the "home advantage" effect. Effective presentation of mid-season league standings is achieved through expected end-of-season league points per match; a Dirichlet-prior shrinkage penalty, again calibrated from data on past seasons, helps to keep such a presentation realistic.
15:00-15:30 Coffee
As ever, please register in advance (https://sites.google.com/site/rssmerseyside/research-meetings/football-leagues/registration) so that we can arrange relevant refreshments.
Kind regards,
Laura
Dr Laura Bonnett
Secretary, RSS Merseyside Local Group
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