We are hosting a workshop on Expert Judgment on Friday August 26. All are welcome, lunch is provided and admission is free. I need to know numbers for lunch so send me an e-mail if you would like to attend. The workshop is funded by the London Math Society and forms part of a series of workshops on Math Methods for Reliability. For more details please see http://maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/fc/LMS-Reliability.html
Expert Judgment Workshop
Friday 26th August 2016
University of Strathclyde
Glasgow
Schedule
10:00-10:25 Welcome & Coffee
10:25-10:30 Introductions to Workshop
Professor John Quigley University of Strathclyde
10:30-11:30 The Classical Method
Abigail Colson University of Strathclyde
11:30-12:30 The Sheffield Method
Dr John Paul Gosling, University of Leeds
12:30-13:15 Lunch
13:15-13:45 Elicitation and Calibration within Bayesian models
Professor Simon French & David Hartley University of Warwick
13:45-14:15 Combining Judgements from Correlated Experts
Dr Kevin Wilson University of Newcastle
14:15-14:45 Eliciting Dependence: Approaches and Guidelines along the Elicitation Process
Christophe Werner, University of Strathclyde
14:45-15:00 Break
15:00-15:30 Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with data - An Empirical Bayes Approach
Professor John Quigley & Professor Lesley Walls, University of Strathclyde
15:30-16:00 Why Geology is often considered to be "as much an art, as a science" - where expert judgement affects billion dollar decisions
Luke Johnson, CEO of Cognitive Geology
16:00-16:10 Closing Remarks
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