Dear All,
We would like to invite you to the next Leeds/Bradford Royal Statistical Society (RSS) meeting on Thursday 14th April 2016. The meeting will be held at the University of Leeds and is a Multi-state Modelling Workshop.
The meeting will be held in Seminar Room Y (Room 8.43N), Level 8, Worsley Building, University of Leeds, from 1:30-4:30pm.
No registration is required and everyone is welcome, membership of RSS is not required to attend.
* Jointly held with the RSS Young Statisticians Section (https://statsyss.wordpress.com/)*
Chaired by Professor Linda Sharples - Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds
Dr Andrew Titman - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Lancaster
Andrew will give a tutorial style lecture to introduce multi-state model methodology.
Dr Aidan O'Keeffe - Department of Statistical Science, University College London
Multi-state models and causal arguments: Application to a study of clinical damage in psoriatic arthritis
In complex chronic diseases, cohorts of patients may be followed longitudinally with information on the development of different processes/outcomes collected at successive points in time for each patient. It may be of interest to consider the causal effect of changes to one patient-specific process earlier in time on another patient-specific process at a later point in time. Multi-state models provide a convenient, intuitive, method for the modelling of processes changing over time and I will discuss multi-state models as a method for assessing a causal effect of one process on another. As an example, I will use data collected over 35 years at the University of Toronto psoriatic arthritis clinic - a large cohort of psoriatic arthritis patients - and consider how multi-state models can be used to assess the causal relationship between disease activity (tenderness and swelling) and clinical joint damage. Within-patient correlation will be considered through the incorporation of patient-specific random effects in the multi-state modelling framework. Emphasis is given to the use of the Bradford Hill criteria for causal inference in observational studies and the concept of local independence between stochastic processes.
+ Another speaker TBC
The meeting will be held 1:30pm until 4:30 pm at Seminar Room Y, Level 8, Worsley Building, University of Leeds. See interactive campus map (http://www.leeds.ac.uk/campusmap).
* Please note meeting starts at 1:30, teas/coffees will be served mid-meeting *
If you require further information please be in touch or see Leeds/Bradford RSS Local Group website: https://sites.google.com/site/rssleedsbradford/
Thanks,
Sarah
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Dr. Sarah Fleming
Secretary/Treasurer, RSS Leeds/Bradford Local Group, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, LICAMM, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
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