The next meeting of the Royal Statistical Society Glasgow Local Group takes place in one week:
Monday 22nd June: The Performance of the Polls in the 2015 Election
Speaker: John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde
Summary: The 2015 election looks as though it will join the 1970 and 1992 contests as elections when the polls were perceived to have got it ‘wrong’. Although on average the polls were no more than a percentage point adrift in their estimates of support for the smaller parties, they suggested that Labour and the Conservatives were in a dead heat when, in practice, the Conservatives proved to be nearly seven points ahead. Only when the results of the BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll were released did the first intimation come that in fact the Conservatives were well head.
In this talk Prof. Curtice will describe how the polls were conducted and assess some of the possible reasons why they overestimated Labour and underestimated Conservative support.
Please note Prof. Curtice is giving this talk in a personal capacity, and not in his role as President of the British Polling Council.
Time: 17.30-18:30, followed by drinks and nibbles
Place: Room LT908, Livingstone Tower, University of Strathclyde, G1 1XH (http://www.strath.ac.uk/maps/livingstonetower/)
Please register at https://sites.google.com/site/rssglasgow/events to help us plan catering.
We hope to see you there,
RSS Glasgow Local Group committee
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