On 26/11/2014 12:47, Tony Marsh wrote:
> I think the OxCal answer of 1/3 may well be right but the definition of the set problem, even by the chief plaintive (Keenan), contains jargon and poorly expressed didactism that I confess to being somewhat confused.
Tony, would you agree that whilst people should be aware of the dispute,
that even in this carefully picked example, the difference is only
between a probability of 50% or 33% for the particular date.
Therefore in almost all cases the difference will be much smaller and so
even if it were true (and that's by no means certain), in practice it
would likely affect the actual figures someone would give for a date but
the methods of close enough that any difference would not be enough to
significantly affect any conclusion?