We are at the last week if classes and exams in North America. In a few days there could be more responses...
Merry Christmas to all!
Claudio Cioffi
--
Sent from my iPhone


On Dec 6, 2013, at 1:22 PM, "Peter Davis (COMPASS)" <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> This is very useful. Well done. A great service to the community. Thanks to all contributors. Special thanks to Nigel for the initiative taken in putting this together. A bit surprised not more from outside Europe. peter
> 
> ________________________________________
> From: News and discussion about computer simulation in the social sciences [[log in to unmask]] on behalf of Nigel Gilbert [[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Friday, 6 December 2013 12:41 p.m.
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: [SIMSOC] ABMs in action: first summary
> 
> I asked the Simsoc list:
> 
> To help me make a case for agent-based modelling, I am looking for examples of ABMs that have actually been used to support policy decision making or for other purposes "in the real world".  If you know of any, please send me brief details (including references, websites etc. if possible).  I am especially interested in cases related to environmental management, but examples from other domains would also be valuable.  Note that I need examples which have been used for practical purposes, rather than those that have been designed to be applied but have never in fact been used.
> 
> Here's a summary of the answers I have received so far (in no particular order).  For further details please contact the senders.  If there are more examples to add, let me know by email to me (not the list), and I'll send out a second summary in due course.
> 
> Nigel
> 
> _______________________________________________________________________
> Professor Nigel Gilbert,  Editor, Journal of Artificial Societies and
>     Social Simulation, <http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/>
>        Centre for Research on Social Simulation (CRESS)
>   Department of Sociology, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
>       Tel:+44 1483 689173   [log in to unmask]
>             <http://cress.soc.surrey.ac.uk/>
> 
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> Gurung's 2006 paper (Gurung, T., Bousquet, F., Trébuil, G.,
> 2006. Companion modeling, conflict resolution, and institution building:
> sharing irrigation water in the Lingmuteychu Watershed, Bhutan. Ecology
> and Society 11.) is an excellent example.
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> Our first ABM on the electricity market has contributed significantly to the still ongoing debate to fix the EU emissions trading scheme.
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> The case is about introducing bio gas as a source of renewable energy in the Netherlands. Bio gas is a different from green gas which has the same quality as natural gas and can therefore be fed into the natural gas pipelines. Since producing green gas is rather expensive, the government and other parties such as the mentioned company are looking for ways to use bio gas without having to spend extra money to upgrade it to green gas. A design they have come up with which has already been built in some places is called the BioNet, where the neighborhood is built in a way to be able to process bio gas by mixing it with natural gas. However, this setting means that there is self-governance in the system where the gas producers such as farmers and waste water facilities, can directly find one of these neighborhoods and negotiate with them. What the agent-based model was supposed to show, was whether this sort of governance would actually work in terms of the well being of the producers or whether the biogas production would meet the demand etc.  In addition, some other questions were regarding the regulations on these biogas grids. Right now they are unregulated and they want to see what the effects would be if they regulate the system.
> 
> We used real data to model this system. The  project with Alliander is in its final phase and we are trying to finalize our results. We have had continuous meeting with stakeholders and I have heard from them that they are using these results in X, Y meeting.
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> I have proposed for the Swedish Armed Forces a strategy development system integrated with a multiple agent based simulation system. With it my research showed that military concepts, relations, roles of engagements could be modelled using MAS. And with the strategy development system defining the plan this could give necessary data to simulate Swedish, Tuzla valley, Afghanistan and Iraq society response. This was visualised in our Visionarium, a decision room, in which stakeholders from military, diplomats, operational researchers, participants from Red Cross. This was experimented with during 2003 as we played Afghanistan, 2004 as we played "Iraq Future 2005" and the software was ported into a general playing platform and used in the US JFCOM experimentation at the MultiNational Exercise version 4. US-NATO led exercise with participation from PfP countries and Australia, New Zealand etc. Several sites where acting in the cyber-environment as if it war peace enforcement, peace keeping, Humanitarian disaster/reliefs and Non-combatant Evacuation operation (NEO).
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> We developed an ABM to inform policy makers about effectiveness of policy
> interventions, designed to accelerate the uptake of electric vehicles.
> Although we can not claim that our simulation results had and will have an
> one-to-one impact on political decisions, we communicated our results to
> federal, state and local political decision makers.
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> Here's an example in emergency management. My
> colleagues and I developed an agent based simulator to help in the
> physical redesign of an emergency call centre. Here is the new centre:
> http://www.essonne.fr/le-conseil-general/soutien-aux-acteurs-locaux/les-organismes-associes/le-service-departemental-dincendie-et-de-secours-de-lessonne-sdis-91/dossier/le-centre-departemental-dappels-durgence-cdau/#.Up8-_Y2E4Xg
> This is actually a picture of the new centre that we helped to design
> and that using the simulation ended up being more efficient (in terms of
> use of resources)
> We were looking at how mutual awareness emerged in a collective and
> modelled aspects such as overhearing and broadcasting. Here's a link to
> a paper:
> http://membres-lig.imag.fr/dugdale/papers/coop2000.pdf
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> Here are two early reports using ABM’s to explore visitor loads on park facilities management.
> I have other examples but these two have had direct impact on planning and management of one of Australia’s iconic National Parks.
> http://www.agents.org.au/20020322Zanon-report.pdf
> http://cals.arizona.edu/~gimblett/Final%20Report%20Port%20Campbell%20Simulation%20Part%202.pdf
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> Christina and
> I have factually developed two models in commission of the "Deutsche
> Post", one of the biggest logistic firms in the world market. The
> models are on cellular automaton basis where the cells represent
> either employees or customers of the Deutsche Post. Hence one can call
> them agent based models, although I do not like these terms (they
> remind me always of James Bond) and prefer the terms "bottom up models".
> The first model is constructed for the reminder department of the
> Deutsche Post; accordingly the cells represent either employees of the
> department or customers who did not pay their bills. A short version
> of this model has been published in: Christina Klüver and Jürgen
> Klüver: Soft Computing Tools for the Analysis of Complex Problems.
> SIMEX 2013, EUROSIS  (The European Simulation Society) 2013. The
> Deutsche Post is already working with this system and is very satisfied.
> The second model simulates the working processes in the department for
> complaints of customers; the cells represent again either customers or
> employees. The idea is to analyze the working time and efficiency of
> the employees. This system is still in an early stage and not yet
> applied by the Deutsche Post although the responsible managers intend
> to use it.
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> At Space Syntax Limited (www.spacesyntax.com) we have more examples of using ABM in real architectural and urban design projects, but these studies have not been published. There are some examples on our website, such as:
> http://www.spacesyntax.com/project/broadgate-arena/
> http://www.spacesyntax.com/project/british-museum/
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> in the past three years we have developed an ABM (AMIRIS) for testing and design energy policy instruments for the market integration of renewable energies (RES) in Germany. The model is used for political consulting in Germany.
> We have published a big report in March this year about the project, model description and analysis of the introduction of the market premium for RES, which was introduced in the EEG 2012. But only in German:
> Project Website in English: http://www.dlr.de/tt/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2885/4422_read-30809/
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> I know that van de Velde's work on HPV vaccination using ABM was taken
> into account in some countries to justify vaccinating boys. See for
> instance: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0067072
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> The water demand model developed in the FIRMA project was used in a study to assess domestic water usage in the face of different climate change scenarios for the EA/DEFRA.  The ABM was used as the basis of a risk analysis of the main statistical projections.  Whether anyone (gov or water companies) took notice, I do not know.  Based on the stakeholder meetings what they were interested in was 'what is the minimum number of reservoirs they have to build and not be blamed for a water shortage'.
> Downing, T.E, Butterfield, R.E., Edmonds, B., Knox, J.W., Moss, S., Piper, B.S. and Weatherhead, E.K. (and the CCDeW project team) (2003).Climate Change and the Demand for Water, Research Report, Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Office, Oxford.
>        • CCDEW Report Executive Summary (PDF)
>        • CCDEW Report (Complete - Large)
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> I have an application of an ABM from a few years ago that has actually been used to support policy decision making.  The application is the EMCAS model, which we first applied to modeling electric power deregulation for the State of in Illinois in the US. The work was supported by the Illinois Commerce Commission, the regulating body in Illinois.  We conducted a series of experiments regarding how the deregulated market would shake out in the coming years, wrote a report, and testified before the ICC in advance of deregulation. Our primary recommendations provided an objective assessment of the need for real-time electricity pricing information to consumers and transparent market monitors in the absence of regulating body.
> 
> Our work on the EMCAS model was referenced in the New York Times in an editorial during the financial crisis, as an example of the need for better models of the economy that consider human behavior: This Economy Does Not Compute, New York Times, Op-Ed Contributor (October 1, 2008)
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/opinion/01buchanan.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=op%20ed%20buchanan&st=cse&oref=slogin
> 
> Since the original application, EMCAS has gone on to be a commercial product and we continue to enhance and apply it to electric power applications for the Department of Energy, such as Smart Grid and implications of incorporating renewable energy into the power grid.
> -----------------------------------------------
> [log in to unmask]
> Early Versions of CommunityViz (a GIS-based Planning Support System)
> incorporated the Policy Simulator, an ABM that stochastically
> simulated long term demographic, economic, and land use change on a
> household-by-household basis.
> This early version was described in: Kwartler M. and Bernard R. N.
> (2001) "CommunityViz: An Integrated Planning Support System" in R.
> Brail and R. Klosterman (eds.) "Planning Support Systems: Integrating
> Geographic Information Systems, Models, and Visualization Tools".
> ESRI Press, Redlands CA.
> -----------------------------------------------
> 
> end