So far the primary mechanism of the warming was that the nights were
getting warmer -- the heat cannot escape the greenhoused atmosphere of
the Earth. The daily high temperatures have not moved as much as the
nightly temperatures have: this is just the amount of solar energy
that reaches Earth, and it has not changed that much. The seasons are
here to stay, but given that heat imbalances increase, there will be
more extremes as a manifestation of that loss of balance.
-- Stas Kolenikov, PhD, PStat (ASA, SSC)
-- Senior Survey Statistician, Abt SRBI
-- Opinions stated in this email are mine only, and do not reflect the
position of my employer
-- http://stas.kolenikov.name
On Sat, Sep 28, 2013 at 7:16 AM, John Bibby
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> So global warming is going up by 3.7 degrees (today's Guardian p.17; "extra
> global warming likely between 2081 and 2100").
>
> I don't want to doubt that, but how should it be interpreted?
>
> As an average presumably, but what sort of average?
>
> No, I don't mean mean, mode or median as per that Stats 100 course we once
> studied - I mean how are we to interpret that average? lt's an average over
> time and space presumably. (I leave aside the question of variability, which
> is generally far more interesting and/or dangerous than the average. After
> all, we can plan for well-predicted averages, as these are. But unpredicted
> tail-values are far more difficult, esp. if we do not know where and when
> they will fall.)
>
> So let's focus on me in York. If the temperature goes up by 3.7 degrees,
> that could be 3.7% every day and night for the whole day and night i.e the
> profile stays exactly the same; it just lifts up by 3.7 degrees. (Unlikely,
> but ok maybe as a first-step thought-experiment.)
>
> Far more likely however (I guess) is a switch between the seasons i.e. we
> might get more 'summery' days and fewer 'wintery' days.
>
> So what I'd like to know is (a) typical temperatures for 'summer' and
> 'winter', and (b) how much of a shift would be needed to reach the required
> temperature rise. A back-of-my-brain calculation led me to think that if
> 'summer' means 30 degrees, and 'winter' means 10 degrees, and if at present
> the ratio is 1 to 1, then an increase of 3.7 degrees corresponds to a ratio
> of roughly 1.6 to 1 i.e. more summer, less winter. Put that way, it does
> not sound so scary.
>
> However, my data may be flawed. Or my thinking may be flawed. Or my politics
> may be flawed. Or (probably) all three.
>
> Can anyone please put me on the straight-and-narrow so I c an sing from the
> same hymn-sheet as the rather incompehensible green-buffs whom I heard on
> the radio yesterday.
>
> Thanks to anybody who has read this far. (I never did understand or
> believe in hymns - but I do like to sing-along!)
>
> JOHN BIBBY
>
>
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