Hi David, Paul, GISCRG, QUANT-GEOG, beyond2011,
Apologies for cross posting.
Danny Dorling points out that without the Census in 2011 we would know far less about important changes in the population of the UK. The early release 2011 Census data showed that there were about half a million more people in the country than we thought there were, and that more of these were women and that this population was concentrated in the South-East of England [1]. Simple facts like this are as important as they are interesting, but the details in terms of things like inequality are even more enlightening. Danny and Ben Hennig are studying census data by producing maps (including cartograms), as more detailed data is released we can see more detail in the distribution of population variables and can learn more about changes over time. I think the ~20 minute talk by Ben and Danny is a good resource for reasoning that we need some data like census data. Moreover, the work that is yet to be done by Danny and colleagues should help develop a convincing case for having a Census in 2021. I've looked at the Beyond 2011 ONS website and plan to contribute to the consultation personally if not as a member of a group. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.
[1] http://dannydorling.org/books/centralline/Further_Resources.html
HTH
Andy
http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner/
-----Original Message-----
From: Geographical Information Science Research Group (GIScRG) [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Paul Norman
Sent: 02 February 2013 18:29
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Please act *now* if you want to save small area population data!!
Dear colleagues
Understandably, only a few of us can invest much time in following the plans for future censuses and you may therefore be unaware of recent developments. If you are a user of small area census data, please read on and act if you can - there is a real risk of losing the small area census data that you currently take for granted.
ONS are currently undertaking research on potential replacements for the conventional census in 2021. Although that seems a very long way off, recommendations need to go before parliament next year and the preparatory work is already well advanced. Based on the series of roadshows run by ONS last autumn, they have not received convincing high-value use cases for small area population attributes. Arguments such as "they are used to target local services" are not sufficiently robust to stand up to the inevitable financial scrutiny. A leading option is to derive basic age/sex data from linked administrative records and to use social survey data to obtain the types of population attributes that would previously have been obtained from the census - (ethnicity, LLTI, tenure, car ownership, employment, etc.) This would clearly not deliver small area data of the current quality, if at all.
We are urgently appealing to the research community to have your say: if no case is made, it seems entirely likely that ONS will not be able to include generation of costly small area data as part of the recommended option. If you can demonstrate high-value research (and ideally high-valued impacts!) based on small area 2001 census data, please mail us - we need to marshall further evidence by the end of February.
Ideally, we are seeking identifiable research with an estimate of value and impact and/or an indication of why it could not be done without high quality small area data. If you can supply a paper or URL where further details could be pursued, better still. NB This is about England and Wales, although Scotland and Northern Ireland will be reviewing the same issues in due course.
If you want to find out more about Beyond 2011, see http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/what-we-do/programmes---projects/beyond-2011/index.html Although there is not a formal consultation currently open, you can also mail them at [log in to unmask]
With many thanks,
David Martin, University of Southampton Email: [log in to unmask]
Paul Norman, University of Leeds Email: [log in to unmask]
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