Flett Theatre
Natural History Museum 
Cromwell Road 
London 
SW7 5BD 

27th November 2012 
12-6pm (including the launch of the PURE Research Programme and evening reception)  

PURE Research Network is holding its first meeting since the award of £4m to PURE Research Programme by the Natural Environment Research Council. 

Please email to [log in to unmask] to register by 16 November 2012. If you have already registered, we look forward to welcoming you to the event.  

The Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment (PURE) Network, www.pure-network.org  is organising an invited meeting to bring together research programmes and projects that aim to increase our understanding of probability, risk and uncertainty in natural hazards. These programmes and projects include initiatives funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, the Met Office and various Government Departments as well as by industry. The event will be of interest to researchers with an interest in natural hazards, uncertainty and risk in the environment; and also to those in government agencies, business and industry who are interested in finding out more about the range of research activities that may be relevant to them.   
We hope that the participants of the conference will be able to 1) get a broad overview of relevant research undertaken by others and 2) make new connections with academics and industrialists working on similar challenges. Full details are available at http://tinyurl.com/azchyg3 .
 
Agenda

12.30-13.30 Arrivals and lunch
13.30-13.40 Welcome from NERC (Chris Franklin, PURE Programme Manager)
13.40-13.50 PURE Overview and Format for the day (Vera Hazelwood, PURE Network Director)
13.50-14.20 PURE Programme research objectives (Richard Chandler and Thorsten Wagener, Leaders of PURE Research Programme)
14.20-15.15 Presentations (see below*** for full list)
15.15-15.45 Coffee break and networking
15.45-16.45 Moderated panel discussion on how PURE can help different programmes work together to cover topics:
-	Environmental modelling and linkages, including developing software tools for hazards modelling.
-	Risk and uncertainty communication. 
-	Mathematical and statistical modelling of natural hazards and associated risk and uncertainty. 
-	Engineering challenges of disaster mitigation and prevention. 
Closing remarks by John Rees, Leader of NERC’s Natural Hazards Theme

16.45 - 18.00 Reception and networking

***Presentations
Jenni Barclay         Introducing the STREVA (STrengethening REsilience in Volcanic Areas) Project
Pierto Bernardara     "EXTREMES UK” Project . Extreme weather event and climate change impact on Power Plants design
Peter Challenor       2 Million years and counting - estimating risk with the RAPIT ensemble
Robert Gurney         The Environmental Virtual Observatory pilot
Quillon Harpham       Modelling the environment with OpenMI 2 and FluidEarth
Paul Kaye	      Practical issues surrounding the use of Catastrophe Models in Insurance
Sue Loughlin          EU FP7 Futurevolc project and NERC STREVA project
Christopher McFee     The Government Office for Science and emergency response to hazards
Bob Moore             Hydrological forecasting: challenges in uncertainty estimation, data assimilation, post-processing and decision-making
Ken  Mylne            Hazard Impact Model development for the Natural Hazards Partnership in support of risk-based warnings.
David Raffaelli       Managing ecosystems under uncertainty: the BESS programme
Peter Sammonds        Increasing Resilience to Natural Hazards
Dickie Whitaker       Oasis Loss Modelling Framework for Academia & Business
Graham Leeks          Changing Water Cycle
Graham Leeks          Storm Risk Mitigation
Nick Watkins          Correlated extreme fluctuations
Jago Cooper           Living with the Dangers of Sudden Environmental Change
Brandon Parkes        Flood risk uncertainty and its impact on insurance and planning
Keith Beven           Why surprises should not be a surprise in uncertainty estimation
Susanne Sargeant      Earthquakes Without Frontiers 
Javier García-Pintado Assimilation of satellite-based water level observations within flood models
David Demeritt        HowSAFE: How States Account for Failure in Europe: Risk and the Limits of Governance
Kate Royse            PURE Experimental Portal: a move to plug & play using OpenMI
 
We hope that this meeting will present a unique opportunity to get an overview of current research initiatives in a probability, uncertainty and risk in the environment area.     

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