Could it be that the growths of people and services coevolve, just like the relationship between land use and transportation? We have conducted simulations on land use and transportation co-evolution for a small town in Taiwan and they generated interesting results.
Shih-Kung
Shih-Kung Lai
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http://www.rebe.ntpu.edu.tw/people/bio.php?PID=9
Professor (Urban and Regional Planning)
Department of Real Estate and Built Environment
Founding Director
International Program on Urban Governance
(http://www.ntpu.edu.tw/ipug)
National Taipei University
151, University Road
San Shia District, New Taipei City, 23741
Taiwan, R. O. C.
Tel: +886-2-8674-1111 ext. 67417 or 67490
Fax: +886-2-8671-5308
Founding President: Chinese Association of Urban Management
http://www.urbanmanagement.org.tw
Co-founding Editor: Journal of Urban Management
http://www.jurbanman.com.tw
-----Original Message-----
From: Complexity & Planning [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Chris Webster
Sent: Sunday, July 15, 2012 3:55 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: a collective research agenda proposal from Ankara
Having talked to a few complexity & planning scholars at the AESOP conference and also to some Turkish urban scholars researching complex planning issues I wondered if the former community might want to turn their attention (collectively or individually) to a particular complex problem faced by the latter. An issue that crops up time and time again in turkish planning - as just about everywhere else where there is fast growth, sprawl and haphazard government control over urban development - is the timing and sequencing of population and services/infrastructure. There are two extreme outcomes:
1. People locate first, services follow
2. Services locate first, people follow
There is an equivalent problem and two extreme outcomes for (a) the fixed costs of urbanisation - ie hard infrastructure and (b) the variable costs ie urban services.
Between the two extremes are a range of hybrid outcomes, depending on prevailing market and governance dynamics, capital supply etc.
RESEARCH QUESTION: Can any general rules be constructed concerning this problem? For example, is the outcome less or more unpredictable (a) at different spatial scales (volumes of people)? (b) temporal scale (slow/fast urbanisation)? (c) with different kinds of feedback channels (clarity of market signals or degree of monopoly in the retail or education markets for example).
What can complexity science say about this central planning issue? Wouldn't it be good if members of this list and of the AESOP complexity group addressed themselves to bringing light to a classic urban planning problem and thus advancing the science of our profession?
Chris Webster
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