Understanding Oil and Commodity Prices
BoE, CAMA and MMF Workshop 25 May 2012
Programme:
9.30 Coffee and registration
9:55 Introduction by Simon Price
10.00-11:20 Session 1 – Forecasting Chair Simon Price (BOE)
10.00 “Forecasting the Price of Oil” by Ron Alquist, Bank of Canada
10:40 “Oil Price Density Forecasts: Exploring the Linkages with Stock Markets” by Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank
11.20 Coffee
11.40-13.00 Session 2 – Macro Modelling Chair Renee Fry (ANU)
11.40 “Impact of oil shocks” by Tamarah Shakir, Bank of England (with Stephen Millard)
12.20 “The Exchange Rate and Oil Demand” by Gert Peersman, Ghent University, Department of Financial Economics
13.00 Lunch
14.00-16.00 Session 3 – Financialisation Part 1 Chair Lavan Mahadeva
14.00 “Recursive Tests for Explosive Behaviour and Bubbles: Some Extensions with Application to Crude Oil & Copper” by Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti Garrigues, Carlos III University (with Christopher L. Gilbert and Rod McCrorie)
14.40 “Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation” by Claudio Morana, Milan State University
15.20 “Speculation in the Oil Market” by Luciana Juvenal, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (with Ivan Petrella)
16.00 Coffee
16.20-17.40 Session 4 – Financialisation Part 2 Chair Mark Salmon (Cambridge)
16.20 “Index Funds Do Impact Grains Prices” by Christopher L Gilbert (with Simone Pfuderer)
17.00 “The Synchronized and Long-Lasting Structural Change on Commodity Markets: Evidence from High Frequency Data” by Nicolas Maystre, UN-DESA (with David Bicchetti)
17.40 Drinks
18.30 Workshop dinner for presenters
The conference will be held at the Bank of England,Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH.
Registration begins at 9:30 for a 9:55 start: proceedings close at 17:40.
Attendance is open to all but for security reasons prior notification is required no later than 18 May (to [log in to unmask]). MMF will reimburse travel expenses for UK academic participants.
Arrive at the Bank museum in Bartholomew Lane where you will be escorted to the workshop venue (the Conference Centre).
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