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ALLSTAT  March 2012

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Subject:

LCF Forecasting Fundamentals Course 15-16 May 2012

From:

Nikolaos Kourentzes <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

[log in to unmask]

Date:

Fri, 2 Mar 2012 06:38:10 -0800

Content-Type:

text/plain

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text/plain (76 lines)

Next UK workshop
on 'Forecasting Fundamentals ' @ Tue 15th
& Wed 16th of May 2012

The Lancaster
Centre for Forecasting has been running this and other courses successfully for
over 10 years, training over 500 demand planners worldwide. This course on
"Forecasting Fundamentals" introduces you to the basic methods, tools
and systems needed for statistical forecasting, and lays the foundation for
increasing your forecasting accuracy and efficiency of work!
 
Target Audience: The course is aimed at practitioners with some
experience in organisational forecasting, and develops the fundamentals of
forecasting methods in a maths-lite, hands-on format that does not require any
prior statistical knowledge. 
 
Course Format: The compact course consists of 4 days held in two
blocks of 2 days each. The first part of the course will be held May 15th &
16th 2012 in Lancaster. The dates of the second part of the course, normally in
September, are agreed with the workshop attendees during the first session. 
 
Course Contents: A combination of lectures and exercises using
Microsoft Excel will enable you to understand the functioning (and the
limitations) of Simple, Trended, Seasonal and Trend-Seasonal 
Exponential
Smoothing and causal modelling using single and multiple dynamic regression. 
 
The
course will consist of hands-on-training (using mainly MS Excel) on:
 
	* Fundamentals of forecasting 
	* Statistical forecasting methods 
	* Limitations of Naive methods 
	* The effect of moving & weighted averages  
	* Selecting and Parameterising Exponential Smoothing methods
	* Econometric methods 
	* Understanding single regression 
	* Extending information to multiple regression 
	* Building dynamic regression including dummy variables & seasonality
	* Forecast evaluation through unbiased forecast errors 
	* Role & adequate use of judgement in forecasting 
	* Examples of Forecasting software etc. 
 
Optional
modules are available to supplement the core course, including an optional
module of a full day following the core course to analyse your data, build
"best practices" models and track possible improvements in
forecasting accuracy. All courses and add-on modules are subject to a minimum
number of registrations. Discounts for groups of 2 and 3 attendees per company
are available. 
 
For
additional information please visit the website http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/Research/Centres/Forecasting/Training/  or download our pdf-brochure directly: http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/files/forecasting/7067/download/ .
 
We look
forward to welcoming you in Lancaster! For all general enquiries, please
contact Dr. Nikolaos Kourentzes at [log in to unmask] .
 
Kind
regards,
Nikos
Kourentzes

_____________________________________
Dr. Nikos Kourentzes 
http://nikolaos.kourentzes.com 
http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/profiles/nikos-kourentzes/
Department of Management Science 
Lancaster University Management School 

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