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ALLSTAT  January 2012

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Subject:

Equation predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (10YRCARD) - where is it?

From:

John Bibby <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

John Bibby <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 11:56:40 +0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (27 lines)

My friendly GP nurse has told me I have 10YRCARD = 30% i.e. a 30% risk
of developing cardiovascular disease over the next 10 years. I have
been recommended statins for life, which will bring the 30% down to
23%.

Can anybody point me please to the equations that will have been used
to get these figures? (Risk-factors used seem to be age, smoking,
alcohol, cholesterol, family history, weight, blood pressure and
glucose intolerance.)

Also, can anyone refer me to advice on side-effects of statins (if
possible with statistics)?

Thanks

JOHN BIBBY

PS: The above points are practical. The following is pedagogic: Kind
friend says "10-year risk of 30% means that you probably won't get
anything for 33.333333 years by which time you'll be a dead duck
anyhow, so why worry?" Discuss.

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