Hi
Many of you know of my interests in traffic - and revenue - forecasts and
forecasting accuracy.
Some procurement processes (bid evaluation and contract award criteria)
specifically for toll roads incentivize bidders to submit optimistic
(unrealistic?) forecasts, not accurate ones. I'm currently researching
alternative 'types' of procurement and transaction/project structures
designed to avoid over-bidding or minimize its influence. My focus is on
international highway concessions but I'm equally interested in examples
from other sectors (utilities, auctions etc.) - and views from outside the
transportation community (eg. treasuries or ministries of finance,
procurement departments).
If you have any thoughts on this matter or can point me in a useful
direction I'd be most grateful. I'm already looking at 'pass through' tolls
but there will be other approaches. Some academics or researchers must have
considered this but my literature review to date is still thin. I'm
interested in practical applications and lessons, not theory.
Happy to share my findings with anyone on the list who is interested. Just
let me know.
Regards,
Rob
Robert Bain
RBconsult Ltd
Investor Support Services
www.robbain.com
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