Hi all,
This is an interesting article [1] about the unexpected large influence
of sulphate aerosols in masking the effects of greenhouse gases on
global warming. It suggests that removal of aerosols, as an attempt to
clean up the atmosphere, caused a spurt in global warming during 90s,
and that aerosol emissions from coal fired generators have been a major
factor in the apparent pause in global warming since 1998, but with
minor volcanoes also contributing.
This news is good and bad. It is bad news while the Chinese are trying
to clean up the pollution from power stations and while there are also
efforts to reduce pollution from ships. But it is good news in that it
supports the idea to deliberate inject aerosols into the atmosphere to
cool the Arctic. In removing sulphate aerosols from one place, we could
put them in another place where they might could prevent polar meltdown
while not being a risk to human health.
So we've been inadvertently geoengineering with aerosols to offset
global warming for decades, and now we need to do it deliberately and
sensibly such as to prevent a global catastrophe from Arctic meltdown.
But we probably only have two years to halt the retreat of sea ice [2].
That is the challenge which governments need to recognise. This is a
global emergency which warrants a determined effort, with the resolve
and intensity of the Manhatten Project [3] but a benign outcome,
including the saving of an entire polar ecosystem.
If we can crack the Arctic nut, then that buys time for solving all the
other global crises that are looming around us, like ocean
acidification, the dying off of the Amazon rainforest and the feeding of
7-10 billion people as the planet heats [4].
Cheers,
John
P.S. We should also use cloud brightening and other techniques to help
cool the Arctic - pulling out all the stops because failure is not an
option.
[1] http://www.eenews.net/public/Greenwire/2011/10/25/1
"Provoked scientists try to explain lag in global warming"
[2] Report from the Chiswick "Arctic methane workshop", October 2011, as
yet unpublished.
Ref to PIOMAS model of sea ice volume, with trend shown in:
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/09/piomas-august-2011.html
[3]
http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2010/06/sea-ice-loss-stuns-scientists.html
Open letter to Dr Holdren.
[4] http://planetark.org/wen/63680
"Crop scientists now fret about heat not just water"
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