Applicants are invited for a full-time, 3 year PhD studentship to start October 1, 2011, based in Milton Keynes, UK.
Applicants should have a good first degree and evidence of strength in mathematics and statistics. The studentship is funded by the European Union and the Open University. It pays full fees and provides a stipend of £13,590 p.a. It is open to applicants of any nationality.
The Project:
The potential effects of climate change on our environment and society are varied and many. To quantify certain of these effects, highly complex simulation models are run with detailed representations of ecosystem processes. These models are computationally expensive - examining a single potential scenario can involve a computer run of several days. Consequently, the ensemble of results from these runs in isolation will be far too sparse to meet practical demands. To counter this, the results can be combined with a larger ensemble of simulation results from computationally cheaper models. This might be achieved by embedding statistical representations (emulations) of the two sets of results in an over-arching model. The purpose of the proposed project is to help extend methods of constructing the cheaper computational models and develop statistical methods for combining the two sets of results. The aim is to provide probabilistic projections of biosphere impacts based on the most comprehensive simulations available, focusing on the following goals:
- identify the likely physical origin of potential risks to globally important ecosystems. This will involve constructing and analysing the statistics of ensembles of global ecosystem model simulations;
- develop a statistical framework for quantifying model error in high-resolution projections of ecosystem responses. This will be achieved through the construction of an over-arching statistical model;
- quantify the societal risks of major disruption to ecosystems on the basis of the latest state-of-the-art model simulations. The evaluation of the over-arching statistical framework connecting small numbers of high-resolution and large numbers of low-resolution simulations will deliver a comprehensive quantification of the risk of damage to global ecosystems.
The work will provide detailed training in statistical and earth-system modelling techniques, and provide an opportunity to contribute to vital work on the risks of climate change. The Department and University have thriving postgraduate communities and provide a full range of courses tailored to the needs of each student covering research techniques, scientific methods, information technology, communication and interpersonal skills.
The supervisors for the project are Dr Neil Edwards and Dr Phil Holden (Faculty of Science) and Prof. Paul Garthwaite (Faculty of Maths, Computing and Technology). Informal enquiries regarding the studentship can be made to Dr Neil Edwards ([log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>). Details of the Department and the Science Faculty can be found on http://www.open.ac.uk/science.
Applications, including a full CV of academic background, suitability for the position and names and addresses of three academic referees, should be sent by email to [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> or by post to Astrid Peterkin, Science Deanery, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA.
Closing date for applications: 10 August 2011
Interviews will take place on 24th August 2011
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