A Model Selection Framework for NICE Technology Appraisal Reviews
University of Warwick - Warwick Business School (Operational Research
and Management Sciences Group) and Warwick Medical School (Health
Sciences Research Institute) in association with the Nuffield Trust
Closing Date: 15 July 2011
Interview Date: TBC - Held at the University of Warwick
Start Date: 3 October 2011
The successful applicant will receive full fees and a stipend of
£17,590 per annum for 3 years.
Available to UK and other European Union nationals only
This research aims to develop and evaluate a framework for selecting an
appropriate operational research (OR) model to support decision making
and public understanding of NICE Technology Appraisal Reviews (TARs) .
There is a significant need for OR modelling to support National
Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) decision making with
regard to the introduction of new technologies. TARs often incorporate
standard models, but there is uncertainty over whether the most
appropriate modelling approach is always selected and whether the scope
and level of detail of such models is correct; in common parlance, are
the models *fit-for-purpose?* Models are widely criticised in the
public press for being incomprehensible, arcane and potentially unfair
to certain groups, for example, those with terminal disease. This has
led to recent changes, for example, in recommended cost per quality of
life year (QALY) limits for those deemed to be in the last few months of
life. NICE has also been criticised by different groups within the
NHS, for example, health commissioners, who suggest that current
technology appraisal models, whilst suited for technical efficiency
decisions for single technologies or diseases, fall down when
improvements in allocative efficiency are being considered. In other
words, multiple relatively expensive technologies approved for use by
NICE can *break the bank* for Primary Care Trusts struggling to make
These problems can be described both in terms of model validity
(sufficient accuracy for purpose) and credibility (client and public
confidence in the models and their outcomes). This project will
evaluate past TAR modelling work, and using the expertise of the
supervisory team, investigate a framework for identifying the
appropriate modelling approach and the appropriate model. A key element
will be to aim to identify simpler models or models that are more
immediately appealing to patients, the public and professionals. Further
criticism of current models relates to the incentives that they provide
to the pharmaceutical industry. There are particular questions for new
methods of value based pricing including: Can new value based pricing
initiatives: i) incentivise long term benefits/health gain as opposed to
short term impact? ii) value innovation by pharmaceutical companies per
se? iii) incorporate the wider economic impact of drugs e.g wider health
and social benefits into models?
The studentship will be supervised by a supervisory team consisting of
Dr Katy Hoad (Warwick Business School), Professor Aileen Clarke and
Professor Stavros Petrou (Warwick Medical School), and with Professor
Stewart Robinson (Loughborough University) and Anita Charlesworth, Chief
Economist at the Nuffield Trust.
Candidates should have a minimum 2.1 class undergraduate degree and a
relevant Masters degree or equivalent experience. Candidates should
have a quantitative background that preferably includes quantitative
health services research, operational research/management science or
economics. Preference will be given to candidates with experience of
operational research modeling, particularly in the health context.
To apply, please use the standard Warwick Business School doctoral
programme application process (see www.wbs.ac.uk/students/doctoral/).
Clearly state that the supervisors will be Dr Katy Hoad and Professor
Aileen Clarke, and state the name of the project on your covering
letter. Also e-mail Professor Aileen Clarke to state that you have
applied so we can quickly identify your application form.
You are asked to write a 2,000 word research proposal based on the
topic of the research project. This will be used to assess your
capability as a PhD researcher.
For further details please contact Dr. Hoad, Professor Clarke or
Professor Petrou at the University of Warwick. ([log in to unmask],
or [log in to unmask] or [log in to unmask])
Professor of Operational Research
Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL,
Home Page: www.btinternet.com/~stewart.robinson1/sr.htm
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