On Tuesday last week, those of us at the British Library were given more or less the same briefing by Sir John. He actually described "the reasonable worst case scenario", not the "worst case scenario" and focussed on the "probable scenario". Given that, I would argue that Sir John's forecast was pretty much on the nose from my perspective and temporal context.
It should be remembered that this was (and still is) very much an evolving situation, and was occurring under extremely complex multi-crisis conditions which has affected communications at all levels.
I doubt very much that this will turn out to be anything other than scaremongering and trying to whip up a storm where none exists. The situation in Fukushima is still orders of magnitude less of an issue than Chernobyl, and I suspect that a lot of it driven by actual or perceived fears of radiation (the worst type of low probability, high impact crisis most people can imagine).
On that issue, I would like to recommend the following resource ;-) http://xkcd.com/radiation/
D
Sent from my iPhone
On 21 Mar 2011, at 17:24, Stephan Matthiesen <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Bob,
>
> can you comment on this newspaper report?
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-ministers-spooked-by-chief-scientific-advisor-2245413.html
>
> Quote:
> Senior ministers were "misinformed" about the risks of a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant by the Government's chief scientific advisor, The Independent has learnt.
>
> At a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday ministers were briefed on the "worst-case scenario" by Sir John Beddington. But less than 24 hours later the situation had deteriorated beyond even the most pessimistic private forecasts by Sir John. As a consequence, there was a significant delay in advising British residents to leave Tokyo and the surrounding area. (end quote)
>
> Thank you
> Stephan
>
> Am 21.03.2011 09:33, schrieb Robert Ward:
>> Bill, within your insulting attack on the integrity of Sir John
>> Beddington is your claim that his comments "were revised as the crisis
>> escalated and came more in line with what many others were reporting."
>>
>> Where is your evidence to support this claim?
>>
>> I gave a link to his comments on 15 March, in which he pointed out that
>> the Chernobyl reactor was very different in design to those at the
>> Fukushima plant, so assessments of the risks needed to take that into
>> account.
>>
>> So why don't you stop regurgitating anti-nuclear rhetoric and simply
>> provide some evidence to justify your amazing claims?
>>
>> Bob Ward
>>
>> Policy and Communications Director
>> Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
>> London School of Economics and Political Science
>> Houghton Street
>> London WC2A 2AE
>>
>> http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham
>>
>> Tel. +44 (0) 20 7106 1236
>> Mob. +44 (0) 7811 320346
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: psci-com: on public engagement with science
>> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Bill O'Neill
>> Sent: 21 March 2011 06:10
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: [PSCI-COM] British journalists spiralling out of control -
>> hysteria sweeps across newsrooms
>>
>> sadly, sorry to disappointment, but that ain't necessarily so - although
>> it is a handy distraction from the point i've
>> been trying to make, regarding vested interests...
>>
>> as i recall, beddington's comments (or the comments reported to him)
>> came late and contrasted in tenor with official
>> pronouncements from japan, the us and elsewhere, until they were revised
>> as the crisis escalated and came more in line
>> with what many others were reporting...
>>
>> this is evidence of caution, or optimism, or incompetence, or
>> impracticalities, or pressure, or something else, or a
>> mixture...i assumed pressure because, i guess, some experience of the
>> chernobyl aftermath had prepared me for the worst,
>> and because, i guess, i'd heard comments from a minister - "this won't
>> affect our decision on nuclear power - such
>> decisions are not taken over a matter of days"- and from an industry
>> chief - "this doesn't mean there's a problem with
>> nuclear power - the accident will improve reactor/station designs" -
>> (all paraphased)...my assumption wasn't an attack
>> on beddington, just simply reflecting the way the world works...
>>
>> in the end, the messenger brings the message and the message brings the
>> vested interest... and chopping the head off the
>> messenger still leaves a message with a vested interest. amen
>>
>>
>>
>> ============================================
>> Original Message
>>
>> Bill, many thanks for confirming that your comments are not based on any
>> evidence!
>>
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>> On 20 Mar 2011, at 15:27, "Bill O'Neill"<[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>>
>>> apologies, only just picked up on this...
>>>
>>> my reference to beddington (chosen only because he was the source in
>> the original contribution) was made in the context
>>> of what i was proposing re: messenger/message - that his comments
>> should be assessed, in my view, in the context of who
>>> he is, who his paymasters/advisers are, his audience and so on...i was
>> not judging his honesty or knowledge, nor that of
>>> his paymasters/advisers (how could i?) but, if you like, i was taking
>> vested interests into account...equally, being
>>> chief scientist doesn't make him the pope (infallible), or not in my
>> view...
>>>
>>> i might add that i did find it slightly irksome that beddington's
>> comments, which matched what the original contributor
>>> wanted to hear, were held up as exemplary while those of others, which
>> didn't, were dismissed as hysteria, but that's
>>> another issue...
>>>
>>> journalists (and scientists) are making such assessments every
>> day...gauging one piece of evidence against another,
>>> establishing extremes, then honing in on the truth (with any
>> luck)...it's a long, tricky process, especially as
>>> political, economic and social forces conspire to try to get their own
>> way...and deadlines don't help...
>>>
>>> to suggest that my comment on beddington amounts to a "slur" is daft -
>> and a typically extravagant response from a
>>> lobbyist with one agenda, and with one worldview...
>>>
>>> ============================================
>>> Original Message
>>>
>>> Wasn't the suggestion preceded by the words 'I assumed'? In other
>> words, just a personal opinion albeit not
>> complimentary.
>>>
>>> Carolyn
>>>
>>> On 18 Mar 2011, at 10:50, Francis Sedgemore wrote:
>>>
>>>> Questioning whether Beddington is giving his own, honest opinion, or
>> that of the state he serves, is perfectly
>>> legitimate. The evidence in my view points firmly to the former. We
>> should be focusing on the content of the discussion,
>>> and provocative interventions can help to do just that.
>>>>
>>>> Francis
>>>>
>>>> On 18/03/2011 10:39, Robert Ward wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> I think the suggestion that the CSA's comments were the result of
>> having
>>>>> been "leant on" is a pretty offensive personal smear, particularly
>> as it
>>>>> is not supported by any evidence whatsoever. Perhaps the psci-com
>> list
>>>>> owner could take a views on whether the message is in breach of the
>>>>> list's rules?
>>>>>
>>>>> Bob Ward
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Dr Francis Sedgemore
>>>> journalist and science writer
>>>> www.sedgemore.com
>>>>
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> --
> Stephan Matthiesen
> http://www.stephan-matthiesen.de
> Neu auf www.science-texts.de: Sarrazin - das fehlende Kapitel
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