Apologies for cross-posting
This is to announce and invite you to participate in a workshop on Environmental Risk and Extreme Events,
to be held at the Centro Stefano Francsini in Ascona, Switzerland, from July 10-15 2011.
Major environmental effects of climate change will be conveyed not through its effects on mean temperatures,
rainfall or other climatic variables, but through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events,
such as heatwaves, windstorms and heavy rainfall. Such events can have major consequences for the built and
natural environments, and may have large economic and ecological costs in addition to their potential for
severe impacts on human health–the estimated 30,000 or more excess deaths in Europe during the summer
heatwave of 2003 being an obvious example. The impact of such events has long been understood within certain
communities of environmental scientists. Civil and construction engineers, hydrologists, and increasingly
climatologists use statistical techniques based on the probabilistic theory of extreme values to guide them
in modelling the sizes and frequencies of rare events. The traditional uses of these ideas do not accommodate
the complexities of modelling uncertainties in a changing environment, in which non-stationarity and spatial and
temporal dependence must be taken into account for useful forecasting and realistic impact assessment. The
purpose of this workshop is to bring together researchers in statistics of extremes and in applied domains
for whom this branch of statistical science is a key tool, in order to assess the state of the art in modelling
of complex extreme events, to highlight ideas emerging from the statistical side that may be useful in
applications, and to identify challenging environmental problems that need statistical innovations from both
theoretical and applied researchers.
The workshop will comprise invited talks and contributed talks and posters. At this stage confirmed speakers
include: Peter Challenor (Southampton), Petra Friederichs (Bonn),Douglas Maraun (Keil), Doug Nychka (NCAR),
Brian Reich (NCSU), Holger Rootzén (Chalmers), Richard Smith (UNC), Jonathan Tawn (Lancaster), and
Francis Zwiers (Victoria).
We invite contributed papers, either oral or poster presentations, on topics within the ambit of the meeting.
More details, including fees and access to the registration form, may be found at http://stat.epfl.ch/ascona2011
Please forward this email to others who may be interested in participating.
We look forward to seeing you in Ascona.
Anthony Davison, Philippe Naveau and Jonathan Tawn
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