Hello,
the Young Statisticians of the Royal Statistical Society would like to bring the following workshop to your attention;
(this is a second announcement)
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2nd February 2011,
Prognostic Modelling, a joint workshop with the Royal Statistical Society Merseyside local group
10.00-16.00, at the University of Liverpool, Lecture Theatre C, University Lecture Block
ALL ARE WELCOME. THE MEETING IS FREE TO ATTEND. Please register for this event at:
https://sites.google.com/site/rssmerseyside/research-meetings/prognostic-modelling/registration-form
For further questions, please contact:
Laura Bonnett ([log in to unmask]) or Jamie Kirkham ([log in to unmask])
Here is a brief outline of the programme:
10:00 -10:45 Eleni Rapsomaniki (Research Associate, University of Cambridge) “A framework for comparing prognostic models based on net health benefits”
New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models in terms of the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis.
10:45 -11:30 Lisa Pennells (Statistician, University of Cambridge) “Assessing discrimination across multiple studies”
There is little agreement on the most appropriate measure to assess the predictive ability of a prognostic model. In this work, different approaches for assessing the predictive ability of a Cox proportional hazards model across multiple studies are investigated.
11:30-11:45 Coffee break
11:45 -12:30 Deborah Stocken (Biostatistics Lead, University of Birmingham)
“Development and validation of a prognostic index for advanced pancreatic cancer”
12:30 -13:15 Laura Bonnett (Research Assistant, University of Liverpool)
“Factors influencing the risk of seizure recurrence in patients with epilepsy and the implications for driving”
In the UK the DVLA use a risk based approach to estimate when patients can regain their licenses - following an unprovoked seizure this equates to a year while new EU legislation requires only six months off driving. Regression modelling was used to investigate how antiepileptic treatment and several clinical factors influence the risk of seizure recurrence following a single unprovoked seizure, completion of drug withdrawal, and treatment reinstatement for patients with recurrence.
13:15-14:15 Lunch break
14:15 -15:00 Willi Sauerbrei (Professor, Universitaetsklinikum Freiburg)
“A new strategy for meta-analysis of continuous covariates in prognostic factor studies”
15:00 -15:45 Richard Riley (Senior Lecturer, University of Birmingham) “Individual participant data meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies: state of the art?”
Prognostic factors are associated with the risk of a subsequent outcome in people with a given disease or health condition. Meta-analysis using individual participant data (IPD), where the raw data are synthesised from multiple studies, has been championed as the gold-standard for synthesising prognostic factor studies. We assess the feasibility and conduct of this approach, using a systematic review of currently published IPD meta-analyses of prognostic factor studies. This talk highlights the advantages and disadvantages of the IPD approach.
With best wishes,
Oliver Ratmann
On behalf on the Young Statisticians Section, Royal Statistical Society
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