National Centre for Research Methods invites you to
The polls in 2010 - learning the lessons
Venue: Trafalgar Events, 8-9 Northumberland Street, London, WC2N 5DA
Date: Monday 22 November 2010
Chair: Lord Lipsey (Straight Statistics)
Opinion polls played a central role in the 2010 election campaign. Never before were so many polls conducted in the weeks immediately before polling day. The introduction of televised leadership debates spawned a new phenomenon, instant post-debate polls designed to gauge audience reaction to what they had just seen and heard. And the discovery that the first of these debates was ‘won’ by Nick Clegg spawned a Liberal Democrat ‘surge’ in the regular polls that influenced much of the conduct and reporting of the remainder of the campaign.
In the event the Liberal Democrat surge failed to materialise – a fact first picked up a joint BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll that caused consternation when it suggested the Liberal Democrats would actually lose seats. But if that proved something of an embarrassment for the polling industry, at the same time the polls seemed finally to have shaken off an apparent pro-Labour bias dating back as far as 1987.
Designed as a follow-up to a joint NCRM/BPC event held in January, shortly before the election, this seminar will examine the methodologies implemented by the polls during the 2010 election, assess what appeared to work and what may have helped lead them astray, and consider what lessons should be learnt for the future.
We have a limited number of spaces, so please book your place as soon as possible to avoid disappointment. There is a registration fee of £15, which will cover event materials, lunch, morning and afternoon tea. For further information and to register please go to http://www.ncrm.ac.uk/TandE/events2010/1122
Best regards, Kaisa
External Relations & Resources Officer
ESRC National Centre for Research Methods
School of Social Sciences
University of Southampton
Southampton SO17 1BJ
Tel. 023 8059 7473
Email. [log in to unmask]
You may leave the list at any time by sending the command
to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.