One-day course: Eliciting Probability Distributions from Experts
The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics
University of Sheffield
9th September 2010
10am to 4.30pm
Course faculty
Dr Jeremy Oakley, Professor Anthony O’Hagan, Mr John Stevens
Background
Decision analytic models such as economic models submitted to NICE and similar
reimbursement authorities around the world often incorporate evidence in the
form of expert opinion. Experts' beliefs about unknown quantities of interest
can be described using probability distributions following a process of
elicitation. This practical course aims provide participants with the skills
required to elicit experts’ probability distributions about unknown quantities
of interest. The course is based around the SHELF package: a set of templates
and software routines in R for conducting elicitation.
Who will benefit from the course?
The course is suitable for health economists, statisticians, systematic
reviewers and decision-makers interested in the elicitation of experts'
probability distributions about unknown quantities of interest to populate
economic models. The course is also suitable for researchers in other
disciplines who wish to learn about expert elicitation. No previous knowledge
of elicitation or of the software package R is assumed.
What does the course deliver?
At the end of this course, participants should:
* Understand the use of probability distributions to represent uncertainty
* Be familiar with the techniques available to elicit experts' probability
distributions
* Be able to facilitate the elicitation of a probability distribution from a
single expert and from multiple experts
* Be able to fit univariate probability distributions to experts' judgements
using the SHELF routines and the software package R
* Know how to document the elicitation process using the SHELF package
Course content
Five lectures, including practical exercises
* Using subjective probability distributions to represent uncertainty
* The psychology of elicitation
* Eliciting univariate probability distributions from a single expert using
SHELF
* Eliciting probability distributions from groups of experts using SHELF
* Multivariate elicitation
Cost
Commercial £200
Academic/Government £150
Course fees include lunch and refreshments. Participants will need to bring
their own laptops.
A booking form can be found at
http://www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/shortcourseunit/courses_new/elic2010.html
or contact Jacquie Bennett at [log in to unmask]
Tel. +44 (0)114 222 2968
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Jeremy Oakley
School of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Sheffield
The Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
Sheffield S3 7RH, UK
Phone: +44 114 222 3853
Fax: +44 114 222 3809
http://www.jeremy-oakley.staff.shef.ac.uk/
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