________________________________________
From: Operational Research community [[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Caroline Turner [[log in to unmask]]
Sent: 28 May 2010 21:38
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Call for Papers JORS Investing in an uncertain future

CALL FOR PAPERS

Investing in an uncertain future


SPECIAL ISSUE OF THE JOURNAL OF THE
OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY


The Institute for Advanced Studies  is at Glasgow is currently running a programme of activities under the title of Investing in an uncertain future, organized by Profs Tim Bedford (Strathclyde), Colin Eden (Strathclyde), Simon French (Manchester), Peter McKiernan (St Andrews) and Kim Swales (Strathclyde).  The programme considers how we frame public policy in the face of uncertainty about the future and about our future values. Using food, energy and health as application domains, the programme looks at four broad themes
1.      How do we value future flexibility, and do market valuations reflect this?
2.      How can we better link scenario planning and cost-benefit analysis, particularly for the purpose of evaluating public policy proposals?
3.      What credible methodologies can we develop to create a good understanding of how public policies, in different policy domains, interact?
4.      Can such methodologies be used to assess what sets of physical, social and intellectual infrastructure policies would give our society a robust transition into the next generation, say 30 years into the future?

Aligned to this programme will be a special issue of JORS. We invite contributions around the broad themes. It is not necessary to have participated in the IAS programme.

Potential topics for the Special issue might include, but are not limited to:

•       Framing and structuring approaches to breaking down the barrier between known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
•       Linking game theoretic and robustness modeling approaches
•       Comparing and contrasting the aims of scenario analysis with that of event trees/decision trees
•       Modelling of long term discount rates
•       Valuation methods for long term policy
•       Biases in the generation of scenarios
•       Use of expert judgement
•       The hard and soft requirements for successfully combining methods, for example linking systems dynamics to econometric modeling
•       Communicating results and persuading decision makers
•       Modelling the impact of our own political processes
•       Issues in multi-method approaches to public policy modeling
•       Examples of multi-disciplinary approaches to modeling uncertainty (OR plus other disciplines such as economics, policy analysis, financial modeling)


The guest-editors will be pleased to discuss proposed papers with authors in advance of formal submission, including outline papers. In addition to research papers, the guest-editors welcome papers written by practitioners, which may take the form of JORS 'Practice Notes' (see OR Newsletter 10th March 2004).

Deadline for submission: 31 July 2010.
Please submit full papers using the JaRS electronic submission system accessible through: www.orsoc.org.uk marked "Special Issue on Investing in an uncertain future'''.
Guest-editor contact details for informal enquiries:

Tim Bedford, [log in to unmask]
Colin Eden, [log in to unmask]
Simon French, [log in to unmask]
Peter McKiernan, [log in to unmask]
Kim Swales, [log in to unmask]


the institute for advanced studies
James Weir Building
75 Montrose Street
Glasgow G1 1XJ
Scotland
t: 0141 548 5930
f: 0141 548 4166
www.instituteforadvancedstudies.org.uk