Dear colleagues,
A reminder about our next seminar and that the closing date for the Manchester Student Prize is fast approaching!
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1. Meeting of the RSS Manchester Local Group this Wednesday -
Date: Wednesday 12th May 2010
Time: 16.00 - 17.00
Venue: G.107 Alan Turing Building, Oxford Road, The University of Manchester
Statistical Analysis of Hospital Infection Data: Models, Inference and Model Choice
Dr Theodore Kypraios
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
High-profile hospital "superbugs" such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) etc have a major impact on healthcare within the UK and elsewhere. Despite enormous research attention, many basic questions concerning the spread of such pathogens remain unanswered. For instance, what value do specific control measures such as isolation have? How the spread in the ward is related to "colonisation pressure"? What role do the antibiotics play? How useful it is to have new molecular rapid tests instead of conventional culture-based swab tests?
A wide range of biologically-meaningful stochastic transmission models that overcome unrealistic assumptions of methods which have been previously used in the literature are constructed, in order to address specific scientific hypotheses of interest using detailed data from hospital studies. Efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed to draw Bayesian inference for the parameters which govern transmission. The extent to which the data support specific scientific hypotheses is investigated by considering and comparing different models under a Bayesian framework by employing a trans-dimensional MCMC algorithm while a method of matching the within-model prior distributions is discussed how to avoid miscalculation of the Bayes Factors. Finally, the methodology is illustrated by analysing real data which were obtained from a hospital in Boston.
Tea/Coffee and Biscuits will be served from 15.30.
All are welcome to attend.
For more information, please visit: http://www.rss-manchester.org/2009-10_session.html
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2. Manchester Student Prize
The Royal Statistical Society Manchester Student Prize 2010 has opened and invites entries from final year undergraduates at universities in north west England completing an applied project with a substantial amount of statistics in it.
Deadline for Submissions is MONDAY 30th MAY 2010
Further detailed information is available at: http://www.rss-manchester.org/prize.html
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Many thanks,
Richard
Dr Richard Emsley
Chairman, Royal Statistical Society Manchester Local Group
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