The Civil Aviation Authority has no remit to minimise road-accidents, so
their recent Icelandic actions have been pretty sound.
However, does the gain from grounding airplanes even with a tripled risk of
falling out of the sky exceed the potential loss from diverting dozens of
thousands from a very safe form of travelling to road travel, which is much
more risky?
Do we have a Bayesian methodology to quantify that potential gain or loss -
and what about interval estimates?
JOHN BIBBY
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