THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
(PLEASE NOTE CHANGE OF TALK DATE FOR WHICH APOLOGIES)
Tuesday 9th February 2010 7:15 for 7:45
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics,
Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
Wilberforce Road,
Cambridge
Predicting the Probability of Developing a Successful Cancer Therapy
Tony Sabin
Amgen, Cambridge
Abstract:
A key component of the drug development process is to stop the
development of poor therapies
as soon as possible and to advance only those therapies that are safe
and effective. This avoids
giving patients ineffective therapies and enables funds and other
resources to be allocated to
more promising treatments. Historically the drug development success
rate for cancer therapies
has been inferior to other therapeutic areas, with many therapies
failing right at the end of the
development process after conducting extremely large and lengthy phase 3
trials. A key
consideration in the decision to start phase 3 trials is the expectation
of a high probability of success.
In this presentation I will describe the use of a Bayesian decision
making framework designed to
predict the probability of achieving a successful frequentist
demonstration of efficacy in a future
pancreatic cancer phase 3 study.
Speaker:
Tony has been working as a statistician in the pharmaceutical industry
for the last 15 years.
For the first 4 years of his career he worked at Astra pharmaceuticals
in the respiratory therapeutic area.
Tony then moved to GSK where he spent 5 years within the clinical
pharmacology group working across a
fairly wide variety of therapeutic areas including migraine, bi-polar
disease, epilepsy, and respiratory disorders.
He then spent a further two years at GSK working on various new
therapies for diseases of the developing world
before moving to Amgen in Cambridge, where he has been working as the
Global Statistical Leader for a
novel oncology therapeutic for the last 4 years.
Directions:
The main entrance is reached from Clarkson Road by going along the
footpath to the right of the Newton Institute, and turning left through the
gatehouse towards the main building (Pavilion A), which has a glass
front and
a curved grassed roof. The main entrance is in the middle of the glass
front. Free Parking is available after 5pm on Clarkson and Wilberforce
Roads
and by entering the site off Wilberforce Road. Admittance may be difficult
after 7:45pm.
Next Meetings: (Please note change of date for Bill Janeway's talk)
2nd March - Bill Janeway (Warburg Pincus & Cambridge University) on 'Six
impossible things before dinner'.
30th March - Doug Easton (CRUK Genetic Epidemiology Unit).
10th May - Tim Sparks (Formerly Centre for Ecology & Hydrology).
October – Martin Gibson (Formerly EMC Europe, Director of Lean Six
Sigma) on
‘The Good, The Bad and the Ugly of Lean Six Sigma’.
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 5-45pm. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 1 pound are now due for attending the 2009-2010 session.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801;
E-mail [log in to unmask]
Take a look at our website:
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/csdg.html
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Peter Watson
MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit
15 Chaucer Road
Cambridge
CB2 7EF
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/
Phone: DIRECT DIAL 1223 273712
+44 1223 355294 x801
Fax: + 44 1223 359062
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