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ALLSTAT  November 2009

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Subject:

SEMINARS: RSS Leeds/Bradford Local Group meeting

From:

Paul Baxter <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Paul Baxter <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:11:56 +0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

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text/plain (90 lines)

## REMINDER ## REMINDER ## REMINDER ##

Dear all,

On Wednesday 18th November, the RSS Leeds/Bradford local group will be
hosting an afternoon on "statistics
and the credit crunch" featuring talks by Mick Ellender (Callcredit
Ltd), David Hand (RSS President), Nick Bingham (Imperial College) and
Klaus Schenk-Hoppe (University of Leeds).

Further details can be found on our webpage:

http://tinyurl.com/rss-lba

All welcome!

Regards, Paul
===================================================================
Dr. Paul D. Baxter
Secretary/Treasurer, RSS Leeds/Bradford Local Group,
Division of Biostatistics, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Leeds/Bradford: Wednesday 18 November, 2.00pm, Leeds University.

Statistics and the credit crunch

Mick Ellender (Callcredit Ltd) [2pm - 2.40pm].

Credit scoring in the current economic climate

A high level look at the statistical techniques and methodologies used
in credit scoring and its use through the consumer life cycle from point
of acquisition to collections and recoveries. The high level theories
will be reviewed along with practical case studies and also a look at
the challenges facing lenders in the current economic environment.

David Hand (Royal Statistical Society) [2.50pm - 3.30pm].

Statistics, data mining, and the personal credit scoring industry

The modern consumer credit industry is fundamentally data-driven,
employing statisticians to build models for an increasing variety of
problems. This talk describes some of these problems, and the sorts of
statistical models which have been built to tackle them.

Nick Bingham (Imperial College) [4pm - 4.40pm].

The crash of 2008: A mathematician’s view

This talk, for the RSS Leeds/Bradford local group meeting on “Statistics
and the credit crunch”, 18 November 2009, allows me to revisit the
ground covered in my article under the title above in Significance 5.4
(2008), 173-5, with the benefit of hindsight and the opportunity to
cover more ground.

The nice thing about mathematics is that you know when you’re wrong.
What the crash of 2008 (or 2007 if you’re American) exposed is that
large numbers of hard-headed, practical people – in economics, business,
banking, government, regulation and much else besides – can be wrong for
long periods of time and not know it.  Read Alan Greenspan’s book The
Age of Turbulence (17.9.2007), and the successive postscripts he added
as the book was reprinted after the crisis broke.  Read his evidence to
the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (23.10.2008) on
how “the whole intellectual edifice of risk management … has collapsed”.

One problem is the difficulties that can come when the scale factor is
ignored (the American sub-prime mortgage market expanded too far too
fast; so did Northern Rock …).  Another is that partial globalisation
gives us the worst of both worlds.  Economies are ever more closely
linked, and for instance the gross economic imbalances between the US
and Chinese economies helped to fuel the sub-prime bubble – but we lack
the adequate global leadership or regulation needed to take proper
corrective action.

Klaus Schenk-Hoppe (University of Leeds) [4.50pm - 5.30pm].

Going naked: The effect of short-selling bans

Short-selling of shares is a popular way of betting your beliefs as a
"bearish" investor. In the current financial crises, short-selling has
been blamed for the unprecedented decline in prices and for putting the
entire financial system at risk. This talk will give a non-specialist
introduction to the topic and explain the statistical and modelling
issues in quantifying the effect of short-selling bans.

The meeting will be held at Leeds University Roger Stevens Building in
RSLT 24, starting at 2.00pm. Refreshments will be available from 1.30pm
in the foyer of level 9 of the School of Mathematics. A further
refreshment break will be held between 3.30pm-4pm.

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