Royal Statistical Society Social Statistics Section
13 October 2009, 5.00pm, at the Royal Statistical Society
(Tea from 4.30pm)
Analysing Uncertainty
David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University
Statisticians try to face up to uncertainty, but this term has many subtle
shades of meaning. The classical paradigm deals with variability in
observable random quantities, while a Bayesian approach extends our range to
include formal expressions of epistemic uncertainty about unknown states of
the world. More controversial is the use of probability statements that
measure what we believe about how the world works, for example in climate
change modelling. However, it has been argued within the social sciences
that all such quantitative approaches are rather restrictive and that more
informal methods are needed to deal with the much deeper uncertainties and
ambiguities in human affairs. I shall attempt to examine how well
statistical methods deal with all these demands.
Ian Plewis will chair the seminar. Attendance is free but pre-registration
is recommended. You can register by email: [log in to unmask] or by phone
(020) 7638 8998. For a map and directions see www.rss.org.uk/findus. We
anticipate the seminar will finish at around 6pm. For further information
contact Ian Plewis on [log in to unmask]
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