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Dear all,
On Wednesday 25th February, the RSS Leeds/Bradford local group will be hosting an afternoon session
on "statistics and crime" with talks by Roger Bowles (University of York) and Brian Francis
(University of Lancaster).
Further details can be found on our webpage:
http://www.maths.leeds.ac.uk/statistics/rss/archive/previous_2009.html#CRIME
All welcome!
Regards, Paul
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Dr. Paul D. Baxter
Secretary/Treasurer, RSS Leeds/Bradford Local Group,
Department of Statistics, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
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Leeds/Bradford: Wednesday 25 February, 3.00pm, Leeds University.
Statistics and crime
Roger Bowles (University of York)
Economic evaluation of criminal justice interventions
In this talk I plan to review the lifecycle of policy interventions and to look at the way the
appraisal and evaluation issues evolve over this cycle. Issues to be explored will include the
choice of outcome measures, implementation variation, offender reactions and agency learning.
Brian Francis (University of Lancaster).
Statistical modelling of conviction data - challenging some criminological concepts in criminal careers
In criminal careers research, specialization has usually been framed by researchers pre-specifying
spheres of criminal activity (sexual, violent, robbery etc) and then determining the amount of
criminal activity which lies within a certain sphere over a certain time period. However, there is
increasing recognition that offenders work in well-defined domains of offending which cut across
these groups. Thus, offenders might be involved in both burglary and theft, but unwilling to engage
in violent activity. We propose an alternative approach to specialization using latent class
analysis and latent transition analysis which seeks to identify such domains of activity, which
would represent criminal lifestyles. Offenders staying within a domain over time can be defined as
lifestyle specialized; those moving between domains are lifestyle versatile. The concept is assessed
on England and Wales birth cohort data on offending, and comparisons are made with traditional
measures of specialization.
The meeting will be held at Leeds University’s Roger Stevens Building in RSLT 25, starting at
3.00pm. Refreshments will be available from 2.30pm in the foyer of level 9 of the School of Mathematics.
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