Hamid
I just remembered this report that you might find useful:
Managing uncertainty in healthcare: Report of a meeting organised by
NICE and AHRQ.
http://www.nice.org.uk/media/A1A/E6/NICEAHRQWorkshopReportFINAL.pdf
It highlights the problem that uncertainty poses for healthcare policy
makers.
Michael
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Power
Sent: 24 October 2008 08:02
Subject: Re: Uncertainty in Medicine
Hi Hamid
Gerd Gigerenzer talks about the "illusion of certainty" in this paper:
http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_2_article.pdf
There is also a book entitled "The Illusion of Certainty: Health
Benefits and
Risks" by Erik Rifkin and Edward Bouwer. It is aimed at a non-technical
audience, and mostl considers the (mis)understanding of environmental
risks.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Illusion-Certainty-Health-Benefits-
Risks/dp/0387751653/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1224831361&sr=8-1
Best wishes
Michael
Dr Michael Power
Clinical Knowledge Author, Guideline Developer and Informatician
Clinical Knowledge Summaries Service www.cks.library.nhs.uk
>
>I would like to let you know that I am going to talk about Uncertainty
in
Medicine , could you ask other colleagues to give me thier advic, any
usefull
material and so on ....
...
>Hamid Baradaran, M.D., Ph.D
>Assistant Professor of Epidemiology
>Medical Education & Development Centre
>Iran University of Medical Sciences
>PO. Box: 14155-5983 , Tehran
>Iran
>Tel: (+98) 21 88052252
>Fax: (+98) 21 88052967
>Email : [log in to unmask]
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