This may be inappropriate for a poetry list, but I've got to share it
with someone. I just stopped off to pick up lunch at the Dominican
place downstairs. On the counter were two tabloids, the Daily News,
which had a picture of the Giants homecoming, and El Diario, whose
headline screamed "Fuerza Latina!" There's been a lot of writing
about the mutual hostility of Black and Latino voters and its effect
on primary votes, but I think there's something more at play: if
Latinos go for Obama they're junior partners in his coalition. If
they go for Hillary they play a major role in getting her
elected--it's not just prejudice, or affection for Bill, but a sense
of Latin power, as the gheadline says--that Latins will have chosen
the president. And that, in America's (and almost anywhere else's)
divisive politics, will give them a lot of clout.
So I thought beyond this insight. Obama's campaign of generalized
hope appeals overwhelmingly to Blacks, obviously, but also to
upper-income, better-educated Whites, and students in training to
become such, especially males. This is the least-vulnerable group in
US society, and the best able to sustain a gamble. If Obama's health
care plan fails, for instance, or fails to include 25 million people
they don't socialize with, it barely affects them. Voting for an
uplifting message entails little risk.
That group, incidentally, tracks as more liberal than Clinton's
supporters, although she is a shade to Obama's left
Clinton's support comes almost entirely from those most vulnerable or
most dissatisfied with the social constraints they perceive as placed
upon them: the lower-income, less-educated, hispanic, elderly,
female. All of these groups see themselves as outsiders
So here's Obama's problem: he somehow has to gain the trust of
Hillary's voters, who appear to be absolutely certain that anything
they get will come out of the nasty business of hardball, divisive
politics. If he loses to Hillary, some Black voters may or may not
stay home in the general election, but the White Obama constituency
will almost certainly fall in line. If Obama wins, he'll lose some of
Hillary's constituency to McCain, who's well-liked by Hispanics and
can speak the language of the elderly, and a great many of the
lower-income will stay home, as they often do.
Ironically, Hillary's despicable Iraq Resolution vote would probably
neutralize some of McCain's appeal, although it's become increasingly
clear that she'd get us out of Iraq no more slowly, and no faster,
than Obama would.
Mark
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