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POETRYETC  February 2008

POETRYETC February 2008

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Subject:

yesterday--skip if you can't take any more politics

From:

Mark Weiss <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Poetryetc: poetry and poetics

Date:

Wed, 6 Feb 2008 12:39:43 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (48 lines)

This may be inappropriate for a poetry list, but I've got to share it 
with someone. I just stopped off to pick up lunch at the Dominican 
place downstairs. On the counter were two tabloids,  the Daily News, 
which had a picture of the Giants homecoming, and El Diario, whose 
headline screamed "Fuerza Latina!" There's been a lot of writing 
about the mutual hostility of Black and Latino voters and its effect 
on primary votes, but I think there's something more at play: if 
Latinos go for Obama they're junior partners in his coalition. If 
they go for Hillary they play a major role in getting her 
elected--it's not just prejudice, or affection for Bill, but a sense 
of Latin power, as the gheadline says--that Latins will have chosen 
the president. And that, in America's (and almost anywhere else's) 
divisive politics, will give them a lot of clout.

So I thought beyond this insight. Obama's campaign of generalized 
hope appeals overwhelmingly to Blacks, obviously, but also to 
upper-income, better-educated Whites, and students in training to 
become such, especially males. This is the least-vulnerable group in 
US society, and the best able to sustain a gamble. If Obama's health 
care plan fails, for instance, or fails to include 25 million people 
they don't socialize with, it barely affects them. Voting for an 
uplifting message entails little risk.

That group, incidentally, tracks as more liberal than Clinton's 
supporters, although she is a shade to Obama's left

Clinton's support comes almost entirely from those most vulnerable or 
most dissatisfied with the social constraints they perceive as placed 
upon them: the lower-income, less-educated, hispanic, elderly, 
female. All of these groups see themselves as outsiders

So here's Obama's problem: he somehow has to gain the trust of 
Hillary's voters, who appear to be absolutely certain that anything 
they get will come out of the nasty business of hardball, divisive 
politics. If he loses to Hillary, some Black voters may or may not 
stay home in the general election, but the White Obama constituency 
will almost certainly fall in line. If Obama wins, he'll lose some of 
Hillary's constituency to McCain, who's well-liked by Hispanics and 
can speak the language of the elderly, and a great many of the 
lower-income will stay home, as they often do.

Ironically, Hillary's despicable Iraq Resolution vote would probably 
neutralize some of McCain's appeal, although it's become increasingly 
clear that she'd get us out of Iraq no more slowly, and no faster, 
than Obama would.

Mark

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