Hi Paul,
Can't give you a reference but I can give you a whole subject area which is
the epitome of this statement. This is the subject of technical analysis
for stock markets and other price series. There is a whole theory on
so-called chartist techniques known as support, resistance, triangles,
breakouts, etc which rely on subjective evaluation of historical prices to
identify patterns that foretell the future. I confess to being seduced by
this theory in my early years until I started simulating markets using
random walks and discovered that these patterns still occurred then!
Indeed last week someone gave me a book "Technical Analysis of Stock
Trends", 9th(!!) edition by Edwards, Magee & Bassetti. It has 800 pages and
90% is about subjective techniques. I just politely said thank you!
Regards
Nigel Marriott
Chartered Statistician
www.marriott-stats.com
Tel (mobile) +44 (0)773 4069997
Tel (office) +44 (0)1225 489033
---
Marriott Statistical Consulting Limited, Company No. 5577275, VAT No.
883304029
Registered in England, Registered Office - Equity House, 4-6 School Road,
Tilehurst, Reading, RG31 5AL
-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Paul Artes
Sent: 12 February 2008 15:38
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: spotting trends & patterns subjectively
Dear Allstaters,
i'm looking for some references on a statement as follows:
"Humans are good at spotting trends and patterns in data, but they
are also good at spotting patterns where none really exist". This is not
verbatim but there must be some scholarly work on this. I can't
remember where I came across it - perhaps I dreamed it up? Help, anyone?
Best wishes
Paul
Paul H Artes, PhD
Associate Professor & Foundation Scholar in Glaucoma Research
Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Dalhousie University
Rm 2035 West Victoria,
1278 Tower Rd, Halifax, Nova Scotia
B3H 2Y5 Canada
+1 (902) 473.7532
[log in to unmask]
|